国际货币基金组织（IMF）：中东主要石油出口国到2026年前预计将从石油出口中获得1.3万亿美元的额外收入
高油价和持续的市场动荡是高收益背后的驱动因素
国际货币基金组织（IMF）：石油和天然气出口国应该利用意外收入投资能源转型
据美国油价网8月19日报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，到2026年前，中东主要石油出口国将因高油价和地缘政治冲突爆发后全球石油市场动荡获得1.3万亿美元额外石油出口收入。
IMF中东和北非主管杰哈德•阿祖尔本周对英国《金融时报》表示，海湾国家“到2026年累计石油出口额外收入将增加1.3万亿美元”。
IMF专家说，石油收入的滚滚财源将充实中东主要石油出口国的大型主权财富基金的金库。
不过，阿祖尔警告说，海湾地区的主要石油和天然气出口国应该利用这笔意外之财在未来进行投资，包括为能源转型做准备。
IMF本周早些时候说，与美国和欧洲许多经济体不同的是，由于油价的上涨和石油产量的增加，中东和世界最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯将成为今年全球经济增长最快的经济体之一。美国和欧洲许多经济体认为经济增长将放缓，并可能在冬季一到就陷入衰退。
由于全面的利商改革、油价大幅上涨以及生产能力从疫情引发的衰退中复苏，沙特阿拉伯今年可能成为全球经济增长最快的经济体之一。国内生产总值预计将增长7.6%，这将是近10年来最快的增长。
阿祖尔说：“以可持续的方式管理石油收入，这样支出就不会随着油价的涨跌而上升和下降，这将促进财政的可持续性，并防止回到以前由石油驱动的繁荣和萧条周期。具有远见的预算规划和使经济多样化的政策也会起到同样的作用。”
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
Middle East Producers Expect To Bank Additional $1.3 Trillion From Oil Exports
· IMF: The major oil exporting countries in the Middle East are expected to receive an additional $1.3 trillion from oil by 2026.
· Higher oil prices and ongoing market turmoil are the driving factors behind higher earnings.
· IMF: Oil and gas exports should use windfall to invest in energy transition.
The major oil exporting countries in the Middle East are expected to receive an additional $1.3 trillion from oil by 2026, thanks to high oil prices and the global oil market turmoil after the war, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Gulf states in particular are set for “additional cumulative oil revenues of $1.3tn through 2026,” Jihad Azour, IMF director for the Middle East and North Africa, told the Financial Times this week.
According to IMF experts, the oil revenue bonanza will bolster the coffers of the large sovereign wealth funds of the major exporters in the Middle East.
However, Azour cautioned that the Gulf oil and gas exporters should use the windfall to invest in the future, including in preparation for the energy transition.
Unlike the U.S. and many economies in Europe, which see slowing growth and could tip into recession as soon as the winter comes, the economy of the largest oil exporter in the Middle East and the world, Saudi Arabia, is set for one of the fastest growth rates this year with the jump in oil prices and higher oil production, the IMF said earlier this week.
“Saudi Arabia is likely to be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies this year as sweeping pro-business reforms and a sharp rise in oil prices and production power recovery from a pandemic-induced recession in 2020. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by 7.6 percent, the fastest growth in almost a decade,” the IMF said.
“Managing oil revenues in a sustainable manner, so that spending does not rise and fall in line with the price of oil, would promote fiscal sustainability and prevent a return to previous oil-driven cycles of boom and bust. So too would far-sighted budget planning and policies to diversify the economy,” the IMF noted.
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