据美国钻井网站2022年8月16日报道， 尽管全球部分地区最近疫情复发，但全球航空燃料需求已卷土重来，并将继续增长到2023年。
美国银行全球研究中心（BofA Global Research）最近在发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中指出，“由于边境限制和旅行担忧导致市场至关重要的每日800万桶航空燃料崩溃”，全球航空燃油价格在2020年和2021年落后于其他石油产品。
美国银行全球研究报告称：“尽管最近全球部分地区暴发了疫情，但航空旅行需求已卷土重来，机场和航班座位都已饱和。”
报告补充说：“疫情后全球航空旅行的复苏始于美洲，并扩展到欧洲，随着限制的放松，现在应该会扩展到亚洲，为原油和馏分油价格提供支持。”
美国银行全球研究报告继续表示，“因此，与远期市场价格为每桶91美元相比，我们继续预计明年布伦特原油平均价格将达到每桶100美元，而馏分油对布伦特原油的裂解价格将接近每桶26美元，其中以航空燃油价格最高” 。
在这份报告中，美国银行全球研究中心预测，由于疫情后需求复苏和对石油的替代，全球石油日需求将增加170万桶。
报告指出：“由于航空旅行需求恢复正常，航空燃料在我们预计的明年石油燃料消费增长中应占四分之一以上，甚至可能占到一半，而历史上只有20%。”
美国银行全球研究报告称：“尽管如此，我们认为的关键风险包括：（1）永久性的商务旅行需求破坏程度超出预期；（2）地缘政治风险；（3）一种新的致命病毒菌株意外地迫使边境再次关闭。”
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Jet Fuel Demand Back with a Vengeance
Jet fuel demand has come back with a vengeance, despite the recent bout of Covid-19, and should continue to grow into 2023.
That’s what BofA Global Research stated in a new report sent to Rigzone recently, which noted that jet fuel prices lagged other products in 2020 and 2021 “as the crucial eight million barrel per day market crashed on border restrictions and travel fears”.
“Yet air travel demand has come back with a vengeance despite the recent bout of Covid-19 infections, saturating airports and airline seats alike,” the BofA Global Research report stated.
“The post-pandemic global air travel recovery that started in the Americas and expanded to Europe should now expand to Asia as restrictions ease, lending support to both crude and distillate prices,” the report added.
“As such, we continue to expect Brent to average $100 per barrel next year compared to a forward market price of $91 per barrel, and distillate cracks against Brent to near $26 per barrel, with jet fuel leading,” the BofA Global Research report continued.
In the report, BofA Global Research forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.7 million barrels per day “on a post-pandemic demand recovery and substitution into oil”.
“As air travel demand normalizes, jet should account for more than a quarter of our projected petroleum fuel consumption growth next year and possibly as much as half compared to just 20 percent historically,” the report noted.
“Still, key risks to our view include (1) deeper than expected permanent business travel demand destruction, (2) geopolitical risks acting as a deterrent to international travel, and (3) a new deadly viral strain that unexpectedly forces border closures again,” the BofA Global Research report continued.
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