目前全球碳市场价值估计超过1000亿美元

由于减排竞争的加剧，目前全球碳市场的价值估计超过1000亿美元  

埃克森美孚公司首席执行官伍兹认为，碳捕获和存储技术（CCS）是能源市场的必杀技，他认为到2050年前，CCS市场的价值可能达到4万亿美元  

由于各国政府和国际机构在努力降低碳排放方面变得越来越积极

据美国油价网8月14日报道，由于世界上许多国家政府和大公司承诺在2050年前或之后实现净零碳排放，碳的价值正在稳步上升。但碳市场的规模究竟会有多大？它会挑战油气行业吗？

目前，碳市场价值估计超过1000亿美元，而且随着绿色能源转型的确立，碳市场价值还在继续增长。随着碳市场价值的增加，这可能对投资者和环境都是积极的。全球每年大约排放420亿吨二氧化碳。如果我们要将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以内，我们必须向大气中释放不超过11500亿吨的二氧化碳，按照目前的排放速度，这将需要大约25年的时间。作为对这一估计的回应，世界上许多国家做出了雄心勃勃的承诺，将在未来25年内大幅削减碳排放。

各国政府制定的碳减排政策使得碳市场价值大幅上升。就在10年前，只有21个市场机制对全球5%的碳排放定价。但这一数字已经增加到68个市场机制，占世界碳排放总量的25%。在2015年签署的《巴黎协定》之后，全球许多国家都同意了削减碳排放的承诺。去年在格拉斯哥举行的COP26气候峰会鼓励制定更雄心勃勃的目标。预计这次年度峰会将继续在全球范围内进一步推动气候目标，并要求各国对其温室气体排放负责。 

一些主要的碳减排机制包括欧盟排放交易计划（EU ETS）、西部气候倡议（WCI）、区域温室气体倡议（RGGI）和英国排放交易计划（ETS）。这些机构约占全球碳排放的5%，价值约1100亿美元。但是，随着其他区域引入它们自己的机制，这一数字预计将大幅增加。 

碳市场提升其价值的方式是增加碳捕获量。它的工作原理是评估全球大气的价值和全球变暖的成本。一些大的参与者已经提出，需要给碳以较高的估值，以鼓励企业通过引入碳捕获和存储（CCS）技术，并投资可再生能源项目来减少二氧化碳排放，以帮助向绿色转型。 

伍兹7月份曾表示，他相信CCS技术是收集碳的“必杀技”，并补充说：“如果你能克服其中一些技术障碍，降低成本，你就有了一种技术，可以以一种非常经济有效的方式解决这个问题。”事实上，埃克森美孚公司估计，到2050年前，CCS市场的价值可能高达4万亿美元。 

当谈到目前监管碳排放市场的不同机制时，有几个区域计划负责监管碳排放交易和管理碳排放额度拍卖。他们还帮助政府制定碳排放法规，从而实现气候目标。例如，WCI成立于2011年，旨在管理其管辖范围内美国和加拿大的温室气体排放交易项目。WCI是一个非营利性组织，为决策者制定新的碳排放法规提供支持，并以排放数据为依据。

RGGI在美国东部各州扮演着类似的角色。它包括康涅狄格州、特拉华州、缅因州、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新罕布什尔州、新泽西州、纽约州、宾夕法尼亚州、罗德岛州、佛蒙特州和弗吉尼亚州，设定碳排放上限，并帮助这些州减少碳排放，以实现地方和国家的气候目标。RGGI已经筹集40亿美元，用于支持整个地区的碳减排计划。它要求发电厂排放每吨的二氧化碳，就必须获得一份RGGI的二氧化碳排放限额，RGGI各州通过季度拍卖发放碳排放限额，从而有助于规范市场。发电厂可能会购买这些配额，而其他发电厂则会改善它们的碳排放做法。 

在英国，英国脱欧后于去年成立的“英国排放交易制度（ETS）”将英国、苏格兰、威尔士等联合起来，规范碳排放，保护英国企业的竞争力。它遵循《2020年温室气体排放交易计划令》，以强制执行英国排放交易体系法规。

最后，就主要机制而言，EU ETS是一个帮助欧盟实现其气候政策的欧洲机制，它以成本效益高的方式减少温室气体排放，主要侧重于碳市场。它在所有欧盟成员国以及冰岛、列支敦士登和挪威运营，限制电力、制造业和航空业约1万个设施的碳排放。它目前监管的法规涵盖了该地区约40%的温室气体排放。  

随着世界多个地区的成熟机制通过碳削减法规、支持气候政策的实施和排放交易帮助提高碳的价值，碳的价格正在被推高。由于未来几年出现更多的机制，覆盖世界碳排放的更高比例，碳的价值将飙升。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

The Unstoppable Growth Of Carbon Markets

·     As the race to lower emissions intensifies, the global carbon market is estimated to be worth more than $100 billion.

·     The CEO of ExxonMobil believes that carbon capture and storage technologies are the holy grail of energy markets, believing the CCS market could be worth $4 trillion by 2050.

·     As countries and international bodies become increasingly aggressive in their attempts to lower carbon emissions, the sky truly is the limit for carbon markets.

As many governments and major companies around the world make pledges for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 or just after, the value of carbon is steadily rising. But just how big will the carbon market become and could it challenge the oil and gas industry? 

At present, carbon markets are thought to be worth above $100 billion and are continuing to grow as the green energy transition takes hold. As the value of carbon increases, this could be positive for both investors and the environment. Globally, around 42 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide are emitted each year. If we are to limit the warming of the planet to 2 degrees, we must release no more than 1,150 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, which at the current rate of emissions would take around 25 years. In response to this estimation, many countries around the world have made ambitious promises to cut their carbon emissions significantly over the next quarter of a decade. 

Governments have established policies on carbon-cutting that have sent the market value of carbon up substantially. Just ten years ago only 21 market mechanisms were putting a price on 5 percent of carbon emissions worldwide. But this figure has since increased to 68 mechanisms on 25 percent of the world’s emissions. Many countries around the globe agreed to carbon-cutting promises following the 2015 Paris Agreement. And the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow last year encouraged even more ambitious targets. The yearly summit is expected to continue pushing climate goals further globally, as well as holding countries accountable for their greenhouse gas emissions. 

Some of the major mechanisms for carbon-cutting include the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), and the U.K. Emission Trading Scheme (U.K. ETS). These mechanisms account for around 5 percent of the world’s carbon emissions, valued at around $110 billion. But as other regions introduce their own mechanisms, this figure is expected to increase significantly. 

The way that the carbon market boosts its value is by increasing the quantity of carbon captured. It works by assessing the value of the world’s atmosphere and the cost of global warming. Some big players have already suggested that carbon needs to be given a high valuation to encourage companies to reduce their CO2emissions by introducing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and investing in renewable energy projects to help the shift to green. 

The CEO of Exxon Mobil, Darren Woods, stated last month that he believes CCS technologies are “the holy grail” when it comes to collecting carbon, adding “if you can overcome some of those technology hurdles, get your cost down, you’ve got a technology then that can address this in a very cost-efficient way.” In fact, Exxon estimates the CCS market could be worth as much as $4 trillion by 2050. 

When it comes to the different mechanisms currently in place to regulate the carbon market, several regional schemes oversee carbon emissions trading and manage carbon allowance auctions. They also help governments set regulations on carbon so they can achieve climate targets. For example, the WCI was established in 2011 to manage greenhouse gas emissions trading programs within its jurisdiction, across the U.S. and Canada. The WCI is a non-profit organization that offers support to policymakers to produce new regulations on carbon, supported by emissions data such as their centralized market registry. 

The RGGI acts as a similar body for the eastern states of the U.S. It covers Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia, setting carbon caps and helping these states to reduce their emissions to meet local and national climate targets. RGGI has raised $4 billion to support carbon-cutting initiatives across the region. It helps to regulate the market by requiring power plants to acquire one RGGI CO2 allowance for every short tonne of CO2 they emit, with RGGI states distributing carbon allowances at quarterly auctions. Power plants may purchase these allowances as others improve their carbon practices.

In the U.K., the U.K. ETS, formed in 2021 (following Brexit) joins political powers from the UK, Scottish and Welsh to regulate carbon emissions and protect the competitiveness of U.K. businesses. It follows the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme Order 2020 to enforce compliance with the UK ETS regulations.

And finally, in terms of the major mechanisms, the EU ETS is the European body that helps the E.U. to achieve its climate policy by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way, focusing primarily on the carbon market. It operates in all the E.U. member states, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway, limiting emissions from approximately 10,000 installations across the power, manufacturing, and aviation industries. It currently oversees regulations covering around 40 percent of the region’s greenhouse gases.

As well-established mechanisms across several regions of the world are helping to increase the value of carbon through carbon- cutting regulations, supporting the implementation of climate policy, and emissions trading, the price of carbon is being driven up. As more mechanisms emerge over the coming years, covering a higher percentage of the world’s carbon emissions, the value of carbon is set to soar.