惠誉解决方案：石油巨头们继续抑制投资

据钻机地带8月9日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司的一份新报告指出，由于年中业绩指导仍然基本坚定，石油超级巨头继续抑制投资。

最近发送给钻机地带的报告显示，总体而言，该集团到2022年将把每年的资本支出提高19%，而此前的指导增长幅度为17%。

惠誉解决方案的分析师在报告中指出，投资的缓慢增长来自壳牌，这是该集团中唯一的例外，自我们之前的报告以来，壳牌已经将2022年的资本支出指导提高了17%。

分析师们在报告中补充道，2022年上半年，布伦特原油平均价格为每桶105美元，比2021年的年平均价格上涨了48%。然而，布伦特原油价格的大幅上涨，未能刺激各大石油巨头增加投资。在下游方面，炼油利润率帮助大幅提振了利润，因为随着因疫情封锁后的经济繁荣，全球炼油产能大幅减少。

分析师们在报告中指出，创纪录的收益应该是增加长期投资的催化剂，但他们补充称，目前来自大型企业的指导“几乎没有留下资本支出过剩的迹象”。

分析师们补充道，长期进行数十亿美元投资的难度仍然受到能源转型带来的不确定性的困扰，大多数石油公司选择谨慎行事，并在2022年的资本支出指导中保持平衡。

惠誉的分析师认为，投资增加不足是未来几年供应紧张的另一个有力指标。

分析师在报告中表示，在多年来投资低迷、产能大国进入全球贸易受到威胁后，市场仍然感到紧张，因为担心供应短缺会帮助维持价格前景的升高。并补充道，尽管鹰派央行的加息引发了对石油需求的短期担忧，但供应前景依然疲弱，为高油价提供了支撑。

惠誉解决方案的报告检索了英国石油公司、雪佛龙、埃克森美孚、壳牌和道达尔能源。在第二季度的财报中，bp公布的基本重置成本利润为85亿美元，而去年同期为28亿美元；雪佛龙公布的净利润为116亿美元，而去年同期为30亿美元。

埃克森美孚公司宣布，预计2022年第二季度盈利179亿美元，而2021年第二季度为46.9亿美元，壳牌公司第二季度的调整后利润为114亿美元，而2021年同期调整后的利润为55亿美元。道达尔第二季的净利润为98亿美元，是去年同期的2.8倍。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下:

Oil Supermajors Continue to Hold Back on Investment

Oil supermajors continue to hold back on investment as mid-year guidance remains mostly firm, a new report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has noted.

Overall, the group will raise annual capital expenditure by 19 percent in 2022 versus earlier guidance growth of 17 percent, the report, which was sent to Rigzone recently, revealed.  

“The mild rise in investment is coming from Shell, the sole exception in the group, who have boosted 2022 capital expenditure guidance by 17 percent since our previous report,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the report.

“Brent crude prices have averaged $105 per barrel for the first half of 2022, a gain of 48 percent over 2021’s annual average price. However, the sharp gains in Brent have failed to spur similar increased investment across the supermajors peer group,” the analysts added in the report.

“On the downstream side record refining margins have helped boost the profits significantly as the global contraction in refining capacity during pandemic supercharged fuel prices as post lockdown economies boomed,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the analysts noted that the record earnings should be the catalyst for increased long-term investment but added that the current guidance from the supermajors “leaves little hint of capital expenditure excess”.

“The difficulty in making multi-billion-dollar investments over the long-term term continues to be dogged by uncertainty raised by the energy transition and most majors have chosen to exercise caution and remain balanced in guidance for capital expenditure in 2022,” the analysts added.

The lack of increased investment is another strong indicator for tight supply in the coming years, according to the Fitch Solutions analysts.

“After years of low investment and threats to the larger producer’s access to global trade, markets remain on edge in fear of supply shortages helping to keep the price outlook elevated,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Although higher interest rates from hawkish central banks have raised near-term concerns for oil demand the outlook for supply remains muted supporting the case for high oil prices,” the analysts added.

Fitch Solutions’ report examined BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies. In its second quarter results, BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $8.5 billion, compared to $2.8 billion during the same period last year, while Chevron reported a net income of $11.6 billion, compared to $3 billion during the same period last year.

Exxon Mobil Corporation announced estimated second-quarter 2022 earnings of $17.9 billion, compared to $4.69 billion in 2Q 2021, Shell posted adjusted earnings of $11.4 billion in 2Q, compared to adjusted earnings of $5.5 billion in 2Q 2021, and TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $9.8 billion in 2Q, which was 2.8 times higher than the same period last year.