加拿大艾伯塔省将很快成为加拿大可再生能源领导者

加拿大的可再生能源产能将从去年的19.6吉瓦上升到2025年的45吉瓦，其中大部分新增可再生能源产能将发生在加拿大著名石油省艾伯塔省

虽然艾伯塔省是加拿大化石燃料工业的中心，但它也将超过安大略省，成为加拿大最大的清洁能源来源地  

艾伯塔省不受监管的电力市场、丰富的自然资源和熟练的能源劳动力使其成为新项目的首选地点 

据美国油价网8月8日报道，数十年来一直是加拿大油气行业所在地的艾伯塔省，未来几年将迎来可再生能源产能的激增。考虑到艾伯塔省丰富的自然资源和有利的监管环境，这将吸引投资。

加拿大的可再生能源总产能预计将从去年的19.6吉瓦增长到2025年的近45吉瓦，主要是受陆上风能和太阳能项目产能增长的推动。对于一个电力结构主要以水力发电为主的国家来说，这并不令人意外，但引领这一潮流的地区却令人意外。 

这些新增项目的大部分将在加拿大西部的艾伯塔省进行。艾伯塔省以加拿大化石燃料工业之乡而闻名，目前艾伯塔省的可再生能源产能仅为3吉瓦左右。该地区的大型项目计划于今年投产，这将使艾伯塔省的发电能力在2023年前达到近10吉瓦。到2025年，这一总量将再次翻倍，达到近21吉瓦，接近全国总发电产能的一半。 

这一快速增长将使艾伯塔省超越加拿大其他省份，以几乎两倍的发电能力超过目前的领先者安大略省，成为加拿大绿色能源排行榜的榜首。

挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）可再生能源分析师杰夫•赫伯特森表示，加拿大对可再生能源并不陌生，但直到现在，艾伯塔省还只是一个小角色。这种情况即将改变。艾伯塔省不受监管的电力市场、最低限度的监管障碍和丰富的自然资源，加上现有的行业专业人员日益渴望适应绿色能源，使其对开发商具有吸引力的前景。如果有雄心吸引有利可图的绿色投资，加拿大其他省份可能会效仿。

艾伯塔省决策者的意图已经明确了一段时间，他们雄心勃勃地计划到2035年前实现净零排放，比全国2050年的目标提前15年，艾伯塔政府也已经采取了具体措施来实现这一目标。艾伯塔省的电力市场不受监管，类似于监管美国电网的德州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）。 这使得私人投资者能够比其他省份更快地寻求绿色投资组合和建设能力。然而，这可能会在极端需求时期造成供应问题，就像最近得克萨斯州的冰冻和热浪所见证的那样。因此，艾伯塔省将需要确保足够的系统灵活性，以支持可再生能源发电的间歇性。虽然短期内不太可能，但如果为了达到碳中和目标而取消所有的天然气发电能力，将需要大量公用事业规模的电池来支持系统。

艾伯塔省的电力系统是独一无二的，因为公司可以直接与私人电力生产商签订协议，每年购买一定数量的电力，用于使用或抵消用电额度。这对希望抵消该省现有业务排放的化石燃料公司具有吸引力。这些合同提供的财务保障有助于生产商在市场风险更低的情况下建设更多的可再生能源项目，而买家则获得廉价的可再生能源或信用，以满足内部或外部的排放目标。  

与艾伯塔省形成对比的是，目前加拿大可再生能源产能领先的安大略省，至少在2025年之前不太可能出现任何显著增长。安大略省利润丰厚的上网电价（FiT）最初允许大规模扩建开发项目，但在2016年到期。艾伯塔省引入的企业电力购买协议（PPAs）激励了开发商。PPAs是私营运营商以固定价格直接向当地电网出售能源的合同。 

艾伯塔省目前可能不是加拿大最大的可再生能源市场，但该省的绿色投资组合预计到2025年前将达到近20吉瓦的太阳能和风能装机容量。这将远远超过安大略省，后者将滑到第2位，只有9吉瓦。 

近一个世纪以来，加拿大的电力结构一直以水力发电为主，第一座水坝建于20世纪20年代。自2010年以来，水电对加拿大国内电力需求的贡献在60%至70%之间，其余主要由煤炭、天然气和核电提供。近年来，陆上风力发电总量有所增长，但仍相对微不足道，在2021年仅占约5%。预计到2025年底，新增的风电装机容量将会增加到大约9%，即60太瓦时。相反，随着加拿大逐步淘汰碳含量高的燃料，煤炭在电力结构中的作用也将下降。2010年，燃煤发电每年提供近80太瓦时的电力，但去年逐渐下降到30太瓦时左右。到2025年，煤炭预计将仅贡献14太瓦时，只占全国电力需求的2%。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Canada’s Oil Province Will Soon Be A Renewable Energy Leader

·     Canada’s renewable energy capacity is set to climb from 19.6 GW in 2021 to 45 GW in 2025, with the majority of the new additions taking place in Alberta.

·     While Alberta is the center of Canada’s fossil fuel industry, it is set to also become the country’s largest source of clean energy, outpacing Ontario.

·     Alberta’s unregulated power market, abundant natural resources, and skilled energy workforce make it a prime location for new projects.

The Canadian province of Alberta, home of the country’s oil and gas sector for decades, is set to undergo a renewable energy capacity surge in the coming years, attracting investments given its vast natural resources and favorable regulatory landscape.

The country’s total renewables capacity is expected to grow from 19.6 gigawatts (GW) in 2021 to almost 45 GW in 2025, driven primarily by growth in onshore wind and solar energy projects. This is not surprising for a country whose power mix is predominantly hydropower-based, but the region leading the charge is surprising.

The bulk of these additions is set to take place in the western province of Alberta - known as the home of the Canadian fossil fuel industry - which today only holds about 3 GW of renewable capacity. Significant large-scale projects in the region are scheduled to come online this year that will push Alberta’s capacity to close to 10 GW before 2023. That total will double again by 2025, reaching almost 21 GW, nearly half of the country’s total.

This rapid growth will see Alberta race ahead of Canada’s other provinces and take the top spot in the country’s green table, outpacing ontario - the current leader - with almost double the power generation capacity.

“Canada is no stranger to renewables, but Alberta has been a minor player until now. That’s about to change. The region’s unregulated power market, minimal regulatory hurdles and abundant natural resources make it an attractive prospect for developers, in addition to an existing workforce of industry professionals increasingly eager to adapt to green energy. Other provinces may want to follow suit if they have ambitions to attract lucrative green investments,” says Geoff Hebertson, renewables analyst with Rystad Energy.

The intentions of Alberta’s decision-makers have been clear for some time, with an ambitious net-zero goal by 2035, 15 years ahead of the national target of 2050, and local authorities have taken concrete steps to achieve this objective. The province has an unregulated power market, similar to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which regulates the US state’s grid. This has allowed private investors to seek green portfolios and build capacity faster than in other provinces. However, this can create supply issues during periods of extreme demand, as witnessed during recent freezes and heatwaves in Texas. The province will therefore need to ensure enough system flexibility to support the intermittency of renewable power generation. Although unlikely in the short term, if all gas generation capacity is removed to hit carbon neutrality goals, substantial utility-scale batteries will be required to back up the system.

Alberta’s electricity system is unique as companies can ink deals directly with private power producers to buy a set amount of electricity each year, either for use or for offset credits. This is attractive for fossil fuel companies looking to offset their emissions from existing operations in the province. The financial security provided by those contracts helps producers build out more renewable projects with fewer market risks, while purchasers get cheap renewable energy or credits to meet internal or external emissions goals.

In contrast to Alberta, Ontario, the current renewables capacity leader in Canada, is unlikely to see any significant growth before at least 2025. The province’s lucrative feed-in tariff (FiT) allowed for a massive expansion of developments initially, but it expired in 2016. The introduction of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) in Alberta - a contract for a private operator to sell energy straight to the local grid at a set price - has incentivized developers.

Alberta may not be the largest market for renewables capacity currently, but the province’s green portfolio is expected to reach nearly 20 GW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2025. That will far outpace Ontario, which will slip to the No. 2 slot, with only 9 GW.

The Canadian power mix has been dominated by hydropower generation for almost a century, with the first dams constructed in the 1920s. Hydropower has contributed between 60% and 70% of the country’s power needs since 2010, with the remainder predominantly supplied by coal, gas, and nuclear. Total onshore wind generation has grown in recent years but remains relatively insignificant, contributing only about 5% in 2021. With the wind capacity additions expected to come online by the end of 2025, that contribution will jump to almost 9%, or 60 terawatt hours (TWh). Conversely, coal’s role in the power mix is set to drop as the country pushes out the carbon-heavy fuel. In 2010, coal-fired generation provided nearly 80 TWh of power annually, but that gradually dropped to around 30 TWh last year. By 2025, coal is expected to contribute 14 TWh, just 2% of the nation’s power needs.