高盛将本季度布伦特油价预测下调至每桶110美元

高盛公司将本季度布伦特原油价格预测下调至每桶110美元  

高盛公司：油价上涨的可能性依然很大  

“创纪录的低备用产能”和低库存仍是原油价格的强劲看涨因素 

据美国油价网8月8日报道， 高盛公司将本季度布伦特原油价格预测下调至每桶110美元，低于此前预测的每桶140美元，但这家投行仍认为，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分。

高盛公司8月7日在一份报告中称，最近几周，低交易流动性和“上升的忧虑之墙”推低了油价。 高盛公司策略师指出，这些担忧包括对经济衰退的担忧、美国释放战略石油储备（SPR）、产能大国原油产量的反弹，以及与疫情相关的快速封锁。 

高盛公司还将布伦特原油今年第四季度价格预期从此前的每桶130美元下调至每桶125美元。然而，其对2023年布伦特原油价格的预测仍维持在每桶125美元。 

高盛公司策略师在彭博新闻社刊发的一份报告中写道：“我们认为，即使假设所有这些负面冲击都结束了，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分，近几个月来，市场赤字仍高于我们的预期。”

高盛公司全年都在看涨油价，尽管下调了近期油价预期，但它仍在继续看涨原油价格。

7月中旬，高盛公司表示，尽管市场抛售仍在持续，但“价格的走势完全偏向上行”。  

高盛公司分析师在7月报告中写道，由于库存较低，且沙特阿拉伯/阿联酋可能将本地区原油日产量提高50万桶，这将进一步耗尽“处于纪录低位的备用产能”，油价上行的风险非常大。

在8月7日的报告中，高盛公司表示：“我们仍预计布伦特原油价格将需要远高于市场远期价格。”

8月8日早盘，油价跌至数月低点，布伦特原油价格跌破每桶94美元，WTI原油价格略低于每桶88美元。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Cuts Oil Price Forecast To $110 This Quarter

·     Goldman Sachs revised down its Brent price forecast for this quarter to $110 a barrel.

·     Goldman Sachs: case for higher oil prices remains strong.

·    "Record low spare capacity" and low inventories remain a strong bullish factor for crude.

Goldman Sachs revised down its Brent price forecast for this quarter to $110 a barrel, down from a previous projection of $140 per barrel, but the investment bank still believes the case for higher oil prices remains strong.

In recent weeks, oil prices have been driven down by low trading liquidity and “a mounting wall of worries,” Goldman said in a note on Sunday. Those worries include fears of recession, the SPR release in the U.S., the rebound in the larger producer crude oil production, and snap COVID-related lockdowns, the bank’s strategists noted.  

Goldman Sachs also revised down its fourth-quarter Brent price forecast to $125 a barrel from $130 per barrel previously expected. The 2023 projection, however, was left unchanged at $125 per barrel.

“We believe that the case for higher oil prices remains strong, even assuming all these negative shocks play out, with the market remaining in a larger deficit than we expected in recent months,” Goldman Sachs’s strategists wrote in the note carried by Bloomberg.

The bank has been bullish on oil all year, and it continues to be bullish on crude prices despite the cut in its near-term price forecasts.

In the middle of July, Goldman Sachs said that despite the ongoing market sell-off, “the skew to prices from here is squarely skewed to the upside.”

With low inventories and a potential Saudi/UAE ramp-up in production in the region of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), which will further deplete “record low spare capacity,” the risks are firmly skewed to the upside, Goldman Sachs’ analysts wrote in the note in July.

In yesterday’s note, Goldman said, “We still expect that Brent prices will need to rally well above market forwards.”

Oil prices were trading at multi-month lows early on Monday, with Brent below $94 per barrel and WTI Crude just below $88 per barrel.