欧洲市场天然气当前价格相当于每桶原油410美元

全球各地的热浪对天然气供应造成巨大压力  

今年冬天，各国将面临天然气短缺  

全球天然气价格正在飙升，目前欧洲的天然气价格相当于每桶原油410美元

据美国油价网报道，今年夏天的热浪和预计今年冬天的天然气短缺正在推动天然气价格越涨越高。  

欧洲基准天然气价格在短短3天内飙升14%，创历史新高，延续了近几周以来的天然气价格上涨趋势。热浪袭人，发电需求旺盛，产能大国管道供应处于低位，而欧盟各国则赶在冬季到来之前争相填满各自天然气储备，能源和天然气供应将实行配给，一些行业将关闭生产，家庭将支付高昂的取暖和电力价格。

欧洲天然气价格时下处于最不稳定的位置，但美国和亚洲的天然气价格也在上涨。电力对天然气的需求很高，美国的天然气产量持平，而主要的亚洲买家又回到了液化天然气市场，以确保冬季的供应。

由于液化天然气现在是一种全球大宗商品，基准天然气和液化天然气现货价格在世界各地都在飙升。当供暖季节临近时，它们甚至会上涨得更高。 

欧洲的天然气价格现在相当于410美元一桶石油  

荷兰TTF中心的欧洲基准天然气价格8月15日至8月17日上涨14%，单单8月17日就上涨6%，达到每兆瓦时240美元（236欧元）的新纪录。自6月份以来，天然气价格已经翻了一番。  

丹麦盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒•汉森日前表示，欧洲基准天然气目前的交易价格相当于每桶原油410美元，这凸显出“天然气价格对欧洲地区经济的削弱影响”。  

这种创纪录的天然气价格正在冲击德国和欧洲其他国家的工业，在能源成本飙升的背景下，企业宣布停产或减产，“直到另行通知”。业界警告称，生产和运营减少可能导致供应链和生产链崩溃。欧洲各国政府正忙于确保足够的天然气过冬，同时在减轻家庭成本负担和避免工业崩溃和能源公司破产之间走钢丝。 

由于天然气短缺和热浪限制了其他燃料来源的供应和产出，欧洲的电力价格早在一年前就开始不断飙升，8月16日，作为欧洲基准的德国电力价格跃升至每兆瓦时508美元（500欧元）以上，创历史新高。  

德国能源监管机构总裁克劳斯·穆勒日前告诉彭博社记者，尽管天然气库存增加速度比往常更快，但如果产能大国完全暂停输送天然气，德国的库存天然气仅够今年冬天消费两个半月。

能源咨询和分析公司Energy Aspects研究主管阿姆里塔•森8月17日向彭博社记者表示：“高企的天然气和石油价格负担实际上意味着，明年我们将看到欧洲经济出现一些急剧收缩。”

美国天然气价格也上涨  

欧洲的天然气价格处于历史高位，是美国基准价格的7倍左右。但美国亨利中心的天然气价格也大幅上涨，达到了14年来的最高水平，这是由于美国国内天然气产量持平、电力部门在热浪中对天然气的需求持续强劲、天然气库存低于正常水平、自由港液化天然气出口终端停产以及为国内消费提供更多的天然气。自由港液化天然气供应中断导致亨利中心天然气价格在6月份下降39%。但美国能源信息署（EIA）近日表示，7月份，美国大部分地区气温高于正常水平，导致电力行业对天然气的需求强劲，这吸收了自由港大部分与液化天然气相关的过剩产量，并抑制了天然气库存的更快增长。此外，EIA指出，美国天然气价格波动性在今年第一季度达到历史最高水平。

EIA的数据显示，美国目前可用天然气库存量比5年平均水平下降12%，比去年同期下降10%。  

由于自由港液化天然气出口终端不可抗力，美国基准天然气价格在6月初出现暴跌，但自6月底以来迄今已经上涨70%，近日甚至达到2008年8月以来的最高水平，每百万英热单位超过9.30美元。

以百万英热单位当量计算的欧洲基准天然气价格现在接近70美元，大约是美国基准价格的7倍。这种巨大的价格差异预计将使更多的液化天然气从美国出口到欧洲，由于欧盟希望尽可能多地取代产能大国的管道天然气，欧洲的液化天然气进口已经处于历史高位。 

亚洲LNG价格也大幅上涨  

交易员告诉彭博新闻社记者，亚洲公用事业公司也重返液化天然气市场，为冬季采购燃料。东北亚需求上升推动液化天然气现货价格上涨至每百万英热单位近60美元，这是自今年3月初以来的最高水平，当时地缘政治冲突将东北亚液化天然气价格推高至每百万英热单位80多美元的创纪录高点。  

随着冬季的临近，天然气价格可能会进一步上涨，因为产能大国供应仍然很低，液化天然气需求仍在上升，而美国生产商却不急于增加液化天然气产量。

最终，高气价可能会刺激美国页岩气钻探商在供应方面做出反应，而在需求方面，创纪录的天然气价格可能会加速需求的破坏，并导致欧洲经济衰退。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Europe’s Gas Price Is Now Equivalent To $410 Per Barrel Of Oil

·     Heatwaves across the globe have weighed on natural gas supplies.

·     Countries are bracing for natural gas shortages this winter.

·     Natural gas prices across the globe are soaring, with European prices now trading at what would be an equivalent of $410 per barrel of crude oil.

Heatwaves this summer and expected natural gas shortages this winter are driving gas prices higher and higher. 

Europe's benchmark gas prices surged by 14% in just three days to a fresh record-high, continuing the upward trend from recent weeks, as gas demand for power generation is high amid heatwaves and  pipeline supply remains at low levels, while the EU scrambles to fill gas storage ahead of the winter that would see energy and gas rationing, industries shutting down production, and households paying sky-high prices for heating and electricity.  

Europe is in the most precarious position, but natural gas prices are rallying in the United States and Asia, too. Gas demand for power is high, and production is flat in America, while major Asian buyers are back on the LNG market to secure supplies for the winter. 

As LNG is now a global commodity, benchmark gas and spot LNG prices are soaring all over the world. And they could jump even higher when the heating season approaches. 

Europe's Gas Price Is Now Equivalent To $410 A Barrel Oil 

Europe's benchmark gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub rallied 14% between Monday and Wednesday, jumping by 6% on Wednesday at a new record of $240 (236 euro) per megawatt-hour. Gas prices have already doubled since June, when the larger producer first reduced supply via pipeline, the key pipeline carrying gas to Europe's biggest economy, Germany. 

The European gas benchmark now trades at what would be an equivalent of $410 per barrel of crude oil, which highlights "the debilitating economic impact on the region," Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said this week.  

Such record gas prices are hitting industries in Germany and the rest of Europe, with companies announcing production halts or curtailments "until further notice" amid soaring energy costs. Industries have warned that reduced production and operations could lead to a collapse of supply and production chains. Governments are scrambling to secure enough gas for the winter while walking a tight rope between alleviating the cost burdens on households and avoiding an industrial collapse and a wave of bankrupt energy companies.

As a result of the gas crunch and a heatwave constraining supply and output from other fuel sources, year-ahead electricity prices continue to soar in Europe, with German power prices, the European benchmark, jumping to over $508 (500 euro) per megawatt-hour on Tuesday—a new record.

Despite faster storage builds than usual, Germany will only have enough natural gas to cover two and a half months of consumption this winter if the larger producer completely suspends deliveries, Klaus Müller, the president of Germany's energy regulator, told Bloomberg this week.  

"The burden of high gas and oil prices will actually mean that we are going to see some steep contraction in the European economies next year," Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg on Wednesday. 

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Rally, Too

European prices are at record highs and at around seven times higher than U.S. benchmark prices. But the U.S. prices at Henry Hub have surged, too, to the highest they have been in 14 years. This is the result of flattish domestic production, strong gas demand from the power sector in heatwaves, and lower than normal stocks in storage, despite the outage at the Freeport LNG export terminal, which has made available more gas for domestic consumption. The Freeport LNG outage prompted a 39% decline in Henry Hub prices in June. But in July, higher-than-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. resulted in strong gas demand in the power sector, which absorbed much of the Freeport LNG-related surplus and kept natural gas inventories from rising faster, the EIA said last week. Moreover, natural gas price volatility reached an all-time high in Q1 2022, the EIA noted. 

Working natural gas stocks are 12% lower than the five-year average and 10% lower than last year at this time, according to the EIA.  

After a slump in early June due to the Freeport LNG force majeure, U.S. benchmark gas prices have rallied by 70% since the end of June, hitting this week their highest level since August 2008 at above $9.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The European benchmark price in MMBtu equivalents is now nearly $70/MMBtu – roughly seven times higher than American benchmark prices. This wide price differential is expected to pull more LNG exports out of America to Europe, which are already at record highs as the EU looks to replace as much pipeline gas as possible. 

Asian LNG Prices Also Soar

Asian utilities are also back on the market to procure fuel for the winter, traders tell Bloomberg. Higher demand in northeast Asia sent spot LNG prices rallying to nearly $60/MMBtu—the highest level since the beginning of March when the war drove up northeast Asian prices to a record high of over $80/MMBtu. 

With winter approaching, natural gas prices could see further upside as supply remains low, LNG demand rises, and American producers are not rushing to ramp up production.  

Eventually, the high prices could spur a response from U.S. shale gas drillers on the supply side, while on the demand side, record prices could accelerate the destruction of demand and sink European economies.