据美国彭博新闻社报道，欧洲的能源危机推动了对一些污染最严重的燃料的需求，欧洲的碳价格跃升到了创纪录的水平。
企业燃烧煤炭甚至石油来维持发电站和工厂的运转，而燃烧更清洁的天然气却越来越稀缺。即使飙升的能源价格和短缺迫使一些行业关闭，但这种情况可能会推高欧洲今年的碳足迹。
彭博新闻社的分析师马里科· 奥尼尔说：“因为燃烧煤炭甚至燃料油比燃烧天然气污染多一些，即使是很少的替代品也可能超过对需求的破坏。”
到目前为止，电力行业是欧盟碳市场中最大的碳排放源，摆脱清洁能源可能很难克服。这反映在欧盟的排污权成本上，周五飙升至创纪录的每吨99.22欧元（99.73美元）。 英国的碳排放许可和煤炭价格也创下新高。
今年欧洲的碳排放量会上升到多高，这将取决于更多的发电和多少燃料成本会抑制需求之间的平衡。本周，挪威水电公司公布了关闭斯洛伐克一家炼铝厂的计划，而欧洲最大的锌冶炼厂之一的运营商表示，由于能源价格高企，该锌冶炼厂已停止生产。
但与此同时，发电也造成了更多的污染。德国公用事业公司Uniper SE在瑞典启用了一座有几十年历史的发电厂，它燃烧燃料油。燃料油比天然气污染更严重，但不像煤炭那么严重。在西班牙，政府旨在限制能源账单的政策无意中鼓励使用天然气发电厂，而不是更高效的发电厂。在冬季来临之前，如果天然气供应不足，更多的煤电可以满足需求。
电力行业的污染程度已经超过过去几年的水平。据BNEF估计，今年前9个月，德国、法国、英国和意大利燃烧化石燃料的发电厂的碳排放量将比2019年同期增长10%。据能源研究公司ICIS称，总体而言，德国今年冬天让更多燃煤和燃油发电厂重新启用的决定可能会使欧盟明年的碳排放量增加多达5%。
咨询公司伍德麦肯兹的分析师韩诺民(音译)说：“公用事业单位的煤炭消耗量增加，尤其是与天气相关的需求激增，将支持价格变化的上行。与宏观经济和地缘政治风险或应对能源价格飙升相关的工业需求破坏代表着下行趋势。”
电力行业排放量的增加不仅是因为从天然气转向煤炭，还因为缺乏更清洁能源的选择。 最重要的是，今年夏天，法国的核反应堆一直以约50%的产能运行，导致法国不得不从更依赖化石燃料的邻国进口电力。
欧洲低碳水力发电今年也受到了影响，因为干旱天气导致水力发电厂运营所需的河流和水库萎缩。与此同时，在欧洲部分地区，包括拥有最大涡轮机群的英国和德国，夏季的风速低于正常水平。
尽管如此，从长远来看，欧洲的碳排放量仍将下降。 欧洲政界人士将在今年晚些时候完成收紧碳市场的最终谈判，以帮助实现欧盟到2030年前将碳排放在1990年水平上减少55%的目标。
作为这一努力的一部分，欧盟将削减向工业企业发放的免费许可证数量。这可能会限制这些公司今年愿意出售许可证的数量，即使它们的需求因产量下降而下降。
李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社
原文如下：
Europe’s carbon price hits new record as natural gas becomes scarce
Europe’s carbon price jumped to a record as the region’s energy crisis is driving up demand for some of the most polluting fuels.
Businesses are burning coal and even oil to keep power stations and factories running while cleaner-burning natural gas becomes increasingly scarce. The situation threatens to push up Europe’s carbon footprint this year even if soaring energy prices and shortages force industries to shut.
“Because burning coal and even fuel oil is so much dirtier than burning gas, even a small substitution could outweigh demand destruction,” said Mariko O’Neil, an analyst at researcher BloombergNEF.
The electricity sector is by far the largest source of emissions in the European Union’s carbon market and a shift away from cleaner sources could be hard to overcome. That’s being reflected in the cost of EU pollution rights, which soared to a record 99.22 euros ($99.73) per metric ton Friday. UK carbon permits and coal prices also hit fresh highs.
How high emissions rise this year will depend on the balance between dirtier power generation and how much fuel costs stifle demand. This week, Norsk Hydro ASA unveiled plans to close an aluminum smelter in Slovakia, while the operator of one of Europe’s largest zinc smelters said it was halting production due to high energy prices.
But at the same time, power generation is polluting more. Utility Uniper SE has turned on a decades-old power plant in Sweden that burns fuel oil, an option that’s dirtier than gas, though not as intense as coal. And in Spain, government policies meant to limit energy bills are inadvertently encouraging the use of gas power plants over more efficient ones. This comes ahead of winter when more coal power could meet demand if gas supplies are insufficient.
The power sector is already polluting more than in recent years. In the first nine months of 2022, emissions from fossil fuel-burning power plants in Germany, France, Britain and Italy are set to rise 10% compared to the same period in 2019, according to estimates from BNEF. Overall, Germany’s decision to bring more coal- and oil-fired plants online this winter may push EU emissions up by as much as 5% next year, according energy research firm ICIS.
“Stronger coal burn at utilities, especially with weather-related demand surges, will support the upside of price change,” said Nuomin Han, an analyst at consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “Industrial demand destruction associated with macroeconomic and geopolitical risks or in response to surging energy prices represents the downside.”
The rise in power sector emissions isn’t just because of the shift from gas to coal, but also because of a dearth of cleaner options. Most importantly, France’s fleet of nuclear reactors have been operating at about 50% capacity this summer, leading the country to import electricity from neighbors that rely more heavily on fossil fuels.
Low-carbon hydro power has also been hit this year because of dry conditions that have shrunk the rivers and reservoirs that the plants need to operate. At the same time, the summer has seen lower wind speeds than normal in parts of Europe, including the UK and Germany, which have the biggest fleets of turbines.
Still, in the long term, Europe’s emissions will decline. European politicians will complete final negotiations later this year to tighten the carbon market to help deliver on the EU’s goal to cut emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
As part of that effort, the EU will cut the amount of free permits issued to industrial companies. That may limit how much those companies would be willing to sell permits this year even if their demand drops because of lower production.
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