今年全球高影响力油气远景构造钻井作业将强劲反弹

据美国钻井网站2022年8月18日报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究结果显示，在去年全球钻井成功率跌至创纪录低点的令人失望以后，高影响力油气远景构造的钻井活动将在今年强劲反弹。 

今年到目前为止，这些关键井发现油气资源的成功率为47%，高于2021年的28%。距离今年年底还有4个多月的时间，来自高影响力井的油气发现量已经增加近4倍，超过17亿桶油当量，这是确保全球油气供应的一个积极迹象。

今年全球将开钻33口高影响力井，这是自该机构2015年开始跟踪这个行业以来最大的年度数量，高于去年完成的29口高影响力井，由于成功率低，去年仅获得4.5亿桶油当量的油气储量。 

Rystad通过多种因素对高影响力井进行分类，包括远景构造规模、是否会在前沿地区或新兴盆地释放新的油气资源，以及它们对运营商的重要性。 

与最近的趋势相反，今年发现的液体储量约为12亿桶油当量，约占总发现储量的70%，而发现的天然气储量约为5.5亿桶油当量。在前几年，天然气的发现量远远超过液体的发现量。今年的反转主要是由于在纳米比亚海上获得了两个重要的石油发现——法国道达尔能源公司的维纳斯石油发现和壳牌公司的格拉夫石油发现。  

Rystad高级分析师Taiyab Zain Shariff说：“去年全球从高影响力井中发现的天然气和液体储量令人失望，但今年有望弥补这一下滑。如果今年上半年的成功率维持全年，我们可能会看到有记录以来产量最高的年度之一。”

在今年预计的33口高影响力井中，19口井已经完钻，4口井正在钻进中，10口井计划在明年之前完钻。今年到目前为止，超过一半的井被认为是“公司的重点”，这表明越来越多的运营商正在缩小他们的勘探地理范围，专注于核心区域，而不是边缘地区。  

全球石油巨头和其他油气勘探和生产公司占今年将完钻的高影响力井的60%以上。石油巨头已经完钻8口高影响力井，其中4口井获得了商业发现——道达尔能源公司在纳米比亚的维纳斯石油发现和壳牌公司在纳米比亚的格拉夫石油发现，埃克森美孚公司在圭亚那的Fangtooth石油发现以及埃尼公司在阿联酋的XG-002天然气发现。 

今年到目前为止，南美洲和非洲已完钻超过45%的高影响力井，其次是澳大利亚和欧洲，各占16%。从单个国家来看，澳大利亚的高影响力井完钻数量最多，有3口，其次是圭亚那和纳米比亚，各有2口。

在今年已完钻的19口高影响力井中，47%的井获得了商业发现，其余的井要么是干井，要么是没有商业开采价值的井，还有一口井仍在等待结果。只有一口井获得纯石油发现，而其他井的发现要么是气体，要么是含伴生气的液体。今年迄今高影响力井的成功率几乎相当于2020年全年，2020年是高影响力井产量最成功的年份之一。 

Rystad预计全球在今年剩余时间里将完钻或开钻14口高影响力井，其中6口由石油巨头完钻。目前正在钻进的4口高影响力井中，埃尼公司负责其中两口。第一口井是位于Cyprus附近区块6的克罗诺斯-1井，钻井总深度大约7700英尺，目标为白垩纪地层。另一口井是印度尼西亚的Dan Tranh-1X井，该井位于Song Hong盆地中新世远景区。另外两口正在钻进中的高影响力井分别是雷普索尔公司位于印度尼西亚海上Andaman-III区块的Rencong井和壳牌公司在圣多美和普林西比边界的里约穆尼盆地的Jaca-1井。该井上周钻到了总深度，目前正在进行完井和评估作业。

今年计划开钻的其他高影响力井分布在非洲和美洲，东南亚也有一些令人兴奋的初探井。这些井大部分被视为“公司的重点”，其次是位于边缘盆地的井。边缘盆地的初探井将有观察的兴趣，因为它们可能开启全新的石油区域。其中包括科威特32年来的首次海上调查，哈里伯顿公司与科威特石油公司签订了6口高温高压探井的合同。如果成功的话，这个钻井活动可能有助于重启长期中断之后的科威特海上遗留油田。 

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

High-Impact Drilling To Rebound In 2022 After Miserable 2021 

Drilling of high-impact oil and gas prospects is set to rebound this year after a disappointing 2021 when success rates plunged towards record lows, Rystad Energy research shows.

These critical wells have found hydrocarbons 47 percent of the time so far this year, up from a measly 28 percent for 2021. With more than four months still to go in 2022, discovered volumes from high-impact wells have nearly quadrupled to over 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) – a positive sign for the global hydrocarbon supply.

A total of 33 high-impact wells are set to be drilled this year, the largest annual number since Rystad Energy started tracking the sector in 2015. This is only slightly more than last year’s 29 high-impact probes, which only yielded 450 million boe because of the low success rate.

Rystad Energy classifies high-impact wells through a combination of factors, including the size of the prospect, whether they would unlock new hydrocarbon resources in frontier areas or emerging basins, and their significance to the operator.

Bucking recent trends, discovered liquids have accounted for 1.2 billion boe or almost 70 percent of the volumes this year, while gas discoveries total about 550 million boe. In previous years, gas discoveries have vastly outnumbered liquids volumes. This year’s reversal is mainly due to two significant oil offshore discoveries in Namibia – TotalEnergies’ Venus and Shell’s Graff.

“Last year was disappointing for discovering gas and liquid volumes from high-impact wells, but 2022 is on track to make up for that slump. If the success rate seen in the first half of 2022 holds for the full year, we could be in for one of the most productive annual volumes total on record,” says Rystad Energy senior analyst Taiyab Zain Shariff.

Of the 33 expected high-impact wells this year, 19 have already been completed, four are in progress, and 10 are scheduled to be completed before next year. More than half of the wells drilled so far in 2022 are considered a “focus for the company,” indicating that more operators are narrowing their geographical range of exploration and focusing on core regions instead of frontier areas.

The global oil majors and other exploration and production companies account for more than 60% of the high-impact wells completed this year. Majors have drilled eight high-impact wells, of which four resulted in commercial discoveries – TotalEnergies’ Venus and Shell’s Graff oil discoveries in Namibia, ExxonMobil’s Fangtooth oil find in Guyana, and Eni’s XG-002 gas discovery in the UAE.

More than 45 percent of wells completed so far in 2022 are in South America and Africa, followed by Australia, and Europe with 16 percent each of completed wells. By individual country, Australia accounted for the most completed high-impact wells with three, followed by Guyana and Namibia with two wells each.

Of the 19 high-impact wells completed this year, 47 percent resulted in a commercial discovery, with the rest either dry or uncommercial and one still awaiting results. only one find was a pure oil discovery, while the rest were either gas or liquids with associated gas. This year’s success rate is almost equivalent to 2020, which was one of the most successful years in volumes from high-impact wells.

Rystad expects 14 high-impact wells to be completed or spudded for the rest of this year, six of them by majors. Eni operates two of the four high-impact wells currently being drilled. The first is the Cronos-1 well in Block 6 off Cyprus, which is drilled at a water depth of around 7,700 feet targeting a Cretaceous play. The other is the Dan Tranh-1X well off Indonesia, targeting a newly identified Miocene play in the emerging Song Hong Basin. The other two in-progress wells are the much-awaited, play-opening Rencong well operated by Repsol in the Andaman-III block off Indonesia, and Shell’s Jaca-1 well in the frontier Rio Muni basin of Sao Tome & Principe. That well reached its total depth last week and is undergoing completion and evaluation.

The rest of the wells planned for this year are distributed throughout Africa and the Americas, with some exciting wildcats to watch in Southeast Asia as well. Most of these are classified “focus for the company,” followed by wells in frontier basins. The frontier wildcats will be interesting to watch as they may open entirely new petroleum regions. These include Kuwait’s first offshore probe in 32 years, where Halliburton has a contract to drill six HPHT exploration wells for Kuwait Petroleum. If successful, this campaign could help restart Kuwait’s offshore legacy fields after a long hiatus.