据美国油价网2022年8月31日报道，根据欧佩克+联合技术委员会（JTC）发布的一份报告，JTC目前预计今年石油市场上的石油过剩将比此前的估计高出10万桶/天。
这个石油生产国联盟目前认为今年石油市场将出现90万桶/天的过剩，比之前的预测增加了10万桶/天。
在基本情况下，JTC的报告估计，9月份石油市场过剩将为310万桶/天，10月份将降至60万桶/天。 根据路透社的报告，11月份石油市场过剩值料将再度上升，达到140万桶/天。
JTC审查石油市场的情况，并就基本面问题向欧佩克+联盟提供建议，但它不建议采取行动。
然而，对石油市场过剩的预测提高了欧佩克+减产的理由。
上周，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，如果欧佩克认为这将为“分裂的”石油市场带来稳定，那么欧佩克将随时准备以任何形式减产。
在沙特阿拉伯发出这个信号后，欧佩克今年轮值主席、刚果能源部长Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua也表示支持可能的减产。 一位熟悉阿联酋想法的消息人士上周告诉路透社，阿联酋对原油市场的看法与沙特阿拉伯类似。
包括伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦在内的一些欧佩克+产油国也表示支持新的产量限制。
欧佩克+将于9月5日召开例会，但目前还不确定是否会讨论新的减产。
两周前，欧佩克秘书长海赛姆·盖斯告诉路透社，全球石油需求仍然强劲，并将持续到今年年底。盖斯说，最近的石油抛售并没有反映基本面，而是出于恐惧。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
OPEC+ Increases Its Oil Market Surplus Forecast By 100,000 Bpd
OPEC+ now expects the oil surplus on the market this year to be higher than its previous estimate by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to a report by the producer group’s Joint Technical Committee (JTC) seen by Reuters on Wednesday.
The alliance of oil producers now sees an oil market surplus of 900,000 bpd for 2022, up by 100,000 bpd compared to the previous projection.
In the base-case scenario, the JTC report estimates that the market surplus will be 3.1 million bpd in September, before dropping to 600,000 bpd in October. For November, the surplus is expected to rise again, to 1.4 million bpd, according to the report seen by Reuters.
JTC reviews the situation in the oil market and advises the OPEC+ group on fundamentals, but it does not recommend a course of action.
However, the raised forecast of an oil market surplus makes the case for OPEC+ production cuts stronger.
Last week, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said that OPEC+ was ready to cut production at any time in any form if it believes it would bring stability to the “schizophrenic” oil market.
After the Saudi signal, OPEC’s rotating president for this year, Congo’s Hydrocarbons Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua, also expressed support for potential cuts. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has similar views to Saudi Arabia on the crude oil markets, a source familiar with the UAE’s thinking told Reuters last week.
Some other OPEC+ producers, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, have also signaled support for new production restrictions.
OPEC+ meets on September 5 at a regular meeting, but it’s not a given yet that it would discuss new production cuts.
Two weeks ago, OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais told Reuters that global oil demand was still robust and would be such through the end of this year. Al-Ghais said that the recent sell-off in oil didn’t reflect fundamentals and was driven by fear.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬科技创新精神，传递更多科技创新信息，宣传国家科技政策，展示国家科技形象，增强国家科技软实力，参与国际科技舆论竞争，提高国际科技话语权，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以崇高敬意。如果您认为本网文章及图片侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
