尽管价格飞涨 美国天然气发电量仍创历史新高

7月份美国用于发电的天然气消费量创下历史新高，而全球对这种燃烧清洁能源的需求只增不降  

虽然美国的天然气价格没有接近欧洲的水平，但由于炎热的夏季和高出口，美国基准天然气价格在过去12个月里上涨了146%  

通常情况下，当天然气价格飙升时，公用事业公司会发电转向其他燃料，但当时缺乏燃煤发电，而且新的可再生能源发电的速度似乎不够快

据油价网9月1日报道，今年7月份，美国用于发电的天然气消费量创下历史新高，7月21日达到637万兆瓦时，而此时立法者正在讨论对可再生能源投资数十亿美元。据美国能源信息署（EIA）在一份报告中称，造成这一峰值的原因是燃煤发电量不足。  

值得注意的是，尽管天然气价格上涨，但7月份美国天然气发电量仍出现增长，这是美国向能源匮乏的欧洲出口更多液化天然气的结果。 

过去12个月，美国基准天然气价格上涨146%，越来越接近每百万英热单位10美元。8月31日，近月亨利中心天然气合约报收于每百万英热单位 9.127美元。 

美国天然气发电量上一次创下纪录是在2020年夏天，当时天然气价格相当低。美国公共电力协会的一份报告指出，当天然气价格上涨时，公用事业公司会转向其他燃料。然而，当其他燃料供应短缺时，公用事业公司似乎被迫继续使用天然气。

EIA的报告没有提及美国风能、太阳能和水力发电，但它指出，由于燃煤发电厂的持续退役，今年夏天美国的燃煤发电能力将比往年更有限。

与此同时，《金融时报》近日报道称，由于“在获得更清洁的替代品方面存在延误，而且电力需求强劲”，一些美国公用事业公司正在推迟燃煤发电厂的退役，以避免电力供应中断。  

奥马哈公共电力社区（OPPD）首席执行官哈维尔•费尔南德斯向英国《金融时报》表示：“尽管这是一个艰难的决定，但有必要维持我们社区所期待的可靠电力服务。”

新的风能和太阳能装置的上网速度似乎不够快，即使在大规模建设的地方，它们也不足以提供可靠的电力服务，OPPD的费尔南德斯如是告诉英国《金融时报》记者。

事实上，天然气发电在美国并没有受到冷落。去年，EIA曾报告称，在2022年至2025年期间，美国计划完成27.3吉瓦的天然气新产能。这意味着2021年的产能增加6%，达到489.1吉瓦。 

路透社日前报道说，由于天然气需求（尤其是来自海外的需求）日益强劲，美国页岩油钻探商似乎对天然气的兴趣再次升温。几年前，由于天然气极其便宜，他们还准备以几乎为零的价格运输天然气，而现在，天然气正变成一种珍贵的商品，产量正在上升。 

9月份美国天然气日产量预计将达到938.4亿立方英尺，比去年同期日增大约67.15亿立方英尺。 海恩斯维尔盆地页岩气产量将增加13.9%，其次是二叠纪盆地页岩气产量增加7%，以及阿帕拉契亚盆地页岩气产量增加2.6%。  

由于经济活动的增加和炎热的夏季，美国的用电总量预计将比去年增长2.4%。尽管欧洲的天然气储备在冬季到来前已经基本填满，但美国的LNG出口仍可能保持强劲。未来几个月，国内外对美国天然气的需求似乎还会增加。 

这意味着气价还有进一步上涨的空间，特别是如果需求高于往常，这取决于天气情况。好消息是，天然气和煤炭可以将美国的停电风险降到最低，而欧洲则做不到这一点，因为那里天然气和煤炭供应都很紧张。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Natural Gas Power Generation Hits Record High Despite Soaring Prices

·     U.S. natural gas consumption for power generation hit a record high in July, and demand for the energy source is only growing around the world.

·     While natural gas prices in the U.S. are not near European levels, the U.S. benchmark is up by 146 percent over the past 12 months thanks to a hot summer and high exports.

·     Normally, utilities switch to other sources when natural gas prices soar, but there was a lack of coal generation and it seems new renewable capacity isn’t coming online fast enough.

Natural gas consumption for power generation in the United States hit a record high in July, spiking at 6.37 million megawatt-hours on July 21, just as legislators were discussing billions in investments in renewables. The reason for that spike was not enough coal generation, according to the Energy Information Administration.

It’s interesting to note that the increase in gas-powered electricity generation in July happened despite higher gas prices, themselves the consequence of higher U.S. LNG exports to energy-starved Europe.

U.S. benchmark gas prices are up by 146 percent over the past 12 months, inching closer and closer to $10 per million British thermal units. Yesterday, the front-month Henry Hub contract closed at $9.127 per mmBtu.

The last time gas generation hit a record in the U.S. was the summer of 2020, when gas prices were quite low. When gas prices rise, utilities switch to other fuels, as a report by the American Public Power Association notes. Yet, when other fuels are in short supply, utilities are forced to stick with gas, it seems.

The report makes no mention of wind, solar, and hydro, but it notes that the availability of coal generating capacity this summer was more limited than in previous years because of the ongoing retirement of coal plants.

At the same time, the Financial Times reported this week that some U.S. utilities were delaying the retirement of their coal-fired plants to avoid supply outages because of “delays in obtaining cleaner replacements and strong electricity demand,” per the report.

“While this is a difficult decision, it is necessary to maintain the reliable electricity service our communities have come to expect,” the chief executive of Omaha Public Power District, Javier Fernandez, told the FT.

It seems new wind and solar installations are not coming online fast enough and, even in places with massive build-outs, they are not sufficient to provide the kind of reliable electricity service OPPD’s Fernandez told the FT about.

Indeed, natural gas generation is far from out of favor in the U.S. Last year, the EIA reported there were 27.3 GW of planned new gas capacity to be completed between 2022 and 2025. The additions represent a 6-percent increase to 2021 capacity, which stood at 489.1 GW.

Amid this stronger demand for natural gas, especially from abroad, U.S. shale oil drillers seem to be warming to natural gas once again, Reuters reported this week. While a few years ago they were ready to ship it for next to nothing because it was dirt cheap, now gas is turning into a precious commodity and production is rising.

This month, gas output is seen reaching 93.84 billion cubic feet per day, up by some 6.715 billion cubic feet daily from a year ago. The Haynesville shale will lead with a 13.9-percent increase in production, followed by the Permian, with 7 percent, and Appalachia, where gas output is seen rising by 2.6 percent.

Electricity consumption in the United States is expected to see a 2.4-percent overall increase over 2021 thanks to higher economic activity and a hot summer. Exports will also likely remain strong even though Europe has almost filled up its gas storage caverns ahead of winter. Demand for gas, both domestic and international, appears set for more gains in the coming months.

This means that prices have further to go, especially if demand turns out higher than usual, which depends on the weather. The good news is that between them, natural gas and coal should minimize the risk of power outages in the United States in a way that they can’t in Europe because both gas and coal supply are tight.