全球海上石油和天然气行业将迎来强劲增长

在经历了疫情引起的衰退以后，高影响力钻井活动正在恢复

在未来几十年的能源转型中，全球石油需求的趋势将是未来海上油田盈利能力的关键因素

许多海上石油项目的盈亏平衡成本低于陆上项目

据油价网9月1日报道，由于欧洲持续的能源危机和紧张的市场证明了世界对化石燃料的大量需求，海上油气钻井活动和钻井项目将在未来几年里强劲增长。

分析人士表示，在疫情引发的暴跌之后，高影响力钻井活动正在恢复，而国际石油巨头接近批准更多的海上油气项目，包括迄今为止生产基地将位于国际水域的海上油气项目。 

尽管急切能源转型和石油巨头宣称加大对清洁能源解决方案投资以及在本十年内抑制油气生产的雄心，但石油巨头们仍在海上寻找大量油气资源。这些发现的资源将需要大量的资本支出来启动和运行，但一旦投入使用，深海海上项目可能会以较低的盈亏平衡成本在未来几十年里生产石油，因为这些大型开发项目的规模非常大。 

在未来几十年的能源转型中，全球石油需求的趋势将是影响未来海上油气田盈利能力的关键因素。 

但现在，虽然一场前所未有的能源危机席卷全球，但勘探和生产公司并没有放弃海上石油。

相反，他们正在寻求开发的项目，与其他类型的石油开发相比，海上项目能够以更低的成本开采石油数年，甚至数十年。 

全球海上油田盈亏平衡成本低于陆上油田

据路透社援引挪威能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司的分析，全球海上油气项目的资源加权布伦特当量盈亏平衡油价平均为每桶油当量18.10美元，而已投产的全球陆上项目的盈亏平衡价格为每桶油当量28.20美元。在正在开发的项目中，全球海上油气项目的盈亏平衡成本低于全球陆上项目。按照这种方法，盈亏平衡是指在稳定的实际油价水平上，资产的继续运营在商业上是可行的。 

加拿大深海项目可能成为世界首个深海项目

世界首个深海项目可能很快就会做出最终投资决定（FID），这个深海项目距离加拿大海岸很远，处于国际水域，需要加拿大根据这个项目的产量向联合国支付矿区使用费。 

这个深海项目就是由挪威能源巨头Equinor牵头的纽芬兰和拉布拉多海上北湾项目（Bay du Nord project）。 

今年4月，这个120亿美元的深海项目获得加拿大政府的积极环境评估。这个项目尚未达成FID，预计将在本世纪20年代末生产出第一桶原油。据《能源管理季刊》报道，加拿大的积极态度使北湾项目“更接近世界上第一个深海海上油气开发项目”。  

除了挪威Equinor，英国石油公司也看到了北湾项目的潜力。在宣布退出加拿大油砂行业的同时，这家英国石油巨头还收购了塞诺佛斯能源公司在北湾项目35%的股份，将重心转向加拿大未来潜在的海上增长。

英国石油公司负责墨西哥湾和加拿大事务的高级副总裁Starlee Sykes在6月份就该公司的这笔交易发表评论：“这是我们在加拿大打造更专注、更有弹性、更有竞争力的业务计划中的重要一步。北湾项目将为我们在纽芬兰和拉布拉多海域的现有投资组合增加相当大的探区和探明储量。”

未来5年海上合同数目将激增

根据韦斯特伍德全球能源集团公布的数据，总体而言，在2022年至2026年间，全球海上油气工程、采购和建设（EPC）支出预计将达到2760亿美元，比前5年增长71%。该能源分析集团表示，亚洲、中东和拉丁美洲将主导上述支出。  

此外，高影响力钻井活动也将卷土重来，与2011年相比，今年迄今为止的高影响力钻井成功率更高。 

在经历了惨淡的2021年（发现新油气资源成功率很低，是历史最低的一年）以后，高影响力勘探活动又重新开始。

雷斯塔能源公司日前曾表示，今年迄今为止，勘探和生产公司已在高影响力井中发现了超过17亿桶油当量的储量，几乎是2021年全年发现的4.5亿桶油当量的4倍。雷斯塔能源公司指出，今年迄今，此类井的成功率达到47%，远高于去年28%的低成功率。

今年钻取的高影响力井成功率大大提高，这对全球能源供应来说是一个良好信号。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Offshore Oil And Gas Set For Robust Growth

·  High-impact drilling is returning after the COVID-induced slump.

·  The trend of global oil demand in the coming decades of the energy transition will be a key factor in the profitability of future offshore oilfields.

·  Many offshore oil projects have lower breakeven costs than onshore projects.

Offshore oil and gas drilling and projects are set for robust growth in the coming years thanks to the world’s clear need for continued large volumes of fossil fuels as evidenced by the ongoing energy crisis in Europe and tight markets. 

High-impact drilling is returning after the COVID-induced slump, while international majors are close to approving more offshore projects, including so far offshore that production sites would be in international waters, analysts say.  

Despite the push for energy transition and oil majors’ stated ambitions to invest more in clean energy solutions and – for some of them such as BP – to curb oil and gas production this decade, Big Oil is looking offshore for massive resources. Those discovered resources would require significant capital expenditure to get them up and running, but once pumping, the deep offshore projects could yield oil for decades at lower breakeven costs because of the sheer scale of the huge developments. 

Sure, more drilling offshore meets strong resistance from environmental organizations, which generally want Big Oil to stop pumping immediately, and which warn that potential ocean spills would endanger marine environment. 

The trend of global oil demand in the coming decades of the energy transition will be a key factor in the profitability of future offshore oilfields. 

But right now, with an unprecedented energy crisis unfolding, E&P companies are not abandoning offshore oil. On the contrary, they are looking to develop projects which would pump oil for years, possibly decades, at lower costs compared to other types of oil developments.

Global Offshore Has Lower Breakeven Costs Than Onshore 

According to Rystad Energy analysis, cited by Reuters, the resource-weighted Brent-equivalent breakeven oil price for producing global offshore projects averages $18.10 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), versus $28.20 per boe breakeven price for global onshore projects already in production. In projects under development, global offshore again beats global onshore in terms of lower breakeven costs. Per the methodology, breakeven is the flat real oil price at which the continued operation of the assets is commercially viable. 

Canada’s Deep Offshore Could Host A World First Project 

One project that could soon make a final investment decision (FID) is so far offshore Canada’s coast that it falls in international waters and would require Canada paying royalties to the United Nations based on production from the project. 

This is the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, led by Norway’s Equinor. In April, the $12-billion project received a positive environmental assessment from the Government of Canada. The project has yet to make an FID, with first oil expected to be produced in the late 2020s. The positive view from Canada takes Bay du Nord “a step closer to being the first offshore oil and gas project in the world to trigger Article 82 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),” reports Energy Regulation Quarterly.

Apart from Equinor, BP has also seen the potential of Bay du Nord. While announcing it was quitting Canada’s oil sands, the UK supermajor also bought Cenovus Energy’s 35% stake in the Bay du Nord project as it shifts its focus to future potential offshore growth in Canada. 

Commenting on BP’s deal, Starlee Sykes, bp senior vice president, Gulf of Mexico & Canada, saidin June: 

“This is an important step in our plans to create a more focused, resilient and competitive business in Canada. Bay du Nord will add sizable acreage and a discovered resource to our existing portfolio offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.” 

Offshore Contracts Set To Surge Through 2026 

Overall, offshore oil and gas engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) spending globally is expected to total $276 billion between 2022 and 2026, which would be a 71% increase compared to the preceding five-year period, according to Westwood Global Energy Group. Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America will dominate expenditure, the energy analytics group said. 

Moreover, high-impact drilling is also back, with a much higher success rate so far this year, compared to 2011. 

High-impact exploration has returned to the scene after a dismal 2021, which saw a low success rate—one of the lowest on record—in discovering new oil and gas resources. 

So far this year, E&P firms have discovered over 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) at high-impact wells, nearly quadrupling the 450 million boe discovered for the whole of 2021, Rystad Energy said earlier this month. So far into 2022, the success rate at such wells has stood at 47%, much higher than the meager 28% success rate last year, Rystad Energy noted.