欧佩克联合技术委员会预计2023年石油市场日缺口为30万桶

据油气新闻网9月1日报道，根据路透社看到的一份文件显示，欧佩克+联合技术委员会（JTC）预计，在其基本情况下，2023年石油市场日缺口为30万桶。

JTC预计，今年的日需求量将落后供应40万桶，考虑到新的产量假设后，向下修正50万桶。

该文件还预测，2023年第四季度缺口将扩大至每日180万桶。

JTC评估考虑到其成员在2022年剩余时间和2023年的较低产量。

据一位欧佩克消息人士表示，除沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和科威特外，预计所有成员国的产量都不会高于7月份的水平。这些数字已经考虑到了这一点。

JTC就市场基本面向石油输出国组织 （OPEC)）和包括产能大国在内的盟国（统称为OPEC+）提供建议。

由于油田投资不足以及西方的制裁，许多欧佩克和欧佩克+产油国缺乏提高产量的能力。参与协议的国家7月份的日产量比配额低了近300万桶。

该委员会表示，在今年剩余时间和2023年，市场将处于吃紧状态，并补充称，根据初步数据显示，在2022年剩余时间和2023年，经合组织商业石油库存将保持在5年平均水平以下。

郝芬 译自 油气新闻网

原文如下：

Opec+ JTC's base case sees 300,000 bpd market deficit in 2023

The Opec+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) expects a 2023 oil market deficit of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) under its base case, according to a document seen by Reuters.

The JTC, expects demand to lag supply by 400,000 bpd this year, a downward revision of 500,000 bpd after new production assumptions were taken into account.

It also forecast a widening of the deficit to 1.8 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2023, the document showed.

The JTC assessment took into consideration lower production by its members for the rest of 2022 and for 2023.

"None of the member countries are expected to produce at higher levels than they did in July, except for Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait," an Opec source said.

"The figures have taken that into account."

The JTC advises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies including the larger producer, a group collectively known as Opec+, on market fundamentals.

Many Opec and Opec+ producers are lacking the capacity to raise output because of insufficient oilfield investment and Western sanctions. Output from countries that are part of the deal was almost 3 million bpd below quota in July.

The committee said the market would be tight for the remainder of the year and for 2023, adding that preliminary data shows that OECD commercial oil stocks will remain below the five-year average for the remainder of 2022 and for 2023.