据管道新闻网9月1日消息称，在过去的五年中，美国乙烷产量一直在增加，并在3月份达到了250万桶/天的月度纪录。从那时起，美国每月的乙烷产量超过240万桶/天。在我们的短期能源展望（STEO）中，我们预测2022年下半年乙烷产量将比2022年上半年增长9%，平均每天超过260万桶。我们预计2022年的产量将超过2021年的16%，即34万桶/天。
STEO预测，2023年美国乙烷产量将再次增长7%，达到270万桶/天，以支持美国消费和出口的持续增长。乙烷几乎完全是石化工厂（被称为蒸汽裂化装置）生产乙烯的原料，乙烯是制造许多塑料和树脂的前体化学品。三种新的石化裂解装置已经投入使用，以支持国内乙烯产量的增长：两种在得克萨斯州，一种在宾夕法尼亚州。
自2017年以来，美国乙烷价格普遍高于天然气价格，这促使天然气工厂运营商从原始天然气流中回收更多乙烷。当乙烷价格相对较高时，天然气运营商会回收更多的乙烷，在液体燃料市场销售（业内称之为乙烷回收）。当乙烷价格相对较低时，操作人员会在加工过的天然气流中留下更多的乙烷（业内称为乙烷拒收），这些乙烷以天然气热值出售。2021年，乙烷价格平均为80美分/百万英热单位，比干式天然气价格高出26%，推动了乙烷回收率的提高。在2022年上半年，尽管平均天然气价格更高，但乙烷溢价稳定在1.36美元/百万英热单位，比Henry Hub天然气批发价格高出25%。
自2015年以来，乙烷作为一种石化原料的海外需求一直在增长。我们预计美国乙烷出口量将从2022年第二季度的约35万桶/天增长至第四季度的约44万桶/天。我们预计2023年乙烷出口量将增加到46万桶/天。
曹海斌 摘译自 管道新闻网
原文如下：
EIA expects U.S. ethane production to grow by 9% in the second half of 2022
Ethane production has been increasing in the United States for the past five years, and it reached a monthly record of 2.5 MMbpd in March. More than 2.4 MMbpd of ethane has been produced in the United States every month since then. In our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast ethane production in the second half of 2022 to grow by 9% compared with the first half of 2022, averaging over 2.6 MMbpd. We expect that production in 2022 will exceed production in 2021 by 16%, or 340,000 bpd.
Our STEO forecasts annual ethane production to increase again in the United States during 2023 by 7% to nearly 2.7 MMbpd to support continued growth in U.S. consumption and exports. Ethane is consumed almost exclusively as a feedstock in petrochemical plants known as steam crackers to produce ethylene, a precursor chemical for manufacturing many plastics and resins. Three new petrochemical crackers have come online to support growth in domestic ethylene production: two in Texas and one in Pennsylvania.
Since 2017, U.S. ethane prices have generally traded at a premium relative to natural gas prices, spurring natural gas plant operators to recover more ethane from raw natural gas streams. When ethane prices are relatively high, natural gas operators recover more ethane to sell in the liquid fuels market (known in the industry as ethane recovery). When ethane prices are relatively low, operators leave more ethane in the processed natural gas stream (known in the industry as ethane rejection), and this ethane is sold at the natural gas heating value. In 2021, ethane prices averaged 80 cents per MMBtu—26% higher than dry natural gas prices—driving higher rates of ethane recovery. During the first half of 2022, the ethane premium remained steady at $1.36/MMBtu, which was 25% above the Henry Hub natural gas wholesale price, despite higher average natural gas prices.
Demand for ethane overseas as a petrochemical feedstock has been growing since 2015. We forecast U.S. exports of ethane to continue to grow from about 350,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2022 to about 440,000 bpd in the fourth quarter. We expect ethane exports to rise to 460,000 bpd in 2023.
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