据美国彭博新闻社2022年8月26日报道，由于发电厂和工业用户寻求缓解天然气价格飙升带来的压力，全球柴油市场似乎将变得更加紧张。
由于欧洲不愿购买产能大国的石油，天然气价格上涨至前所未有的水平，消费者正在寻找天然气的替代品。同时，全球柴油库存仍处于异常低的水平，而目前的柴油库存通常都在扩大，为冬季柴油消费增加做准备。
国际能源署（IEA）本月调高了对全球石油需求增长的预测，原因是预计将有更多国家从天然气转向这种燃料，而这些国家将集中在欧洲和中东。上周，美国原油及成品油出口升至创纪录水平，其中柴油出口领涨。
对炼油商来说，这股抢购柴油热潮是件好事，但也会给全球经济带来更大的通胀压力。
一支载有柴油的油轮船队已经从中东和亚洲驶往欧洲，欧洲也在努力应对莱茵河浅水区造成燃料运输的破坏。壳牌公司由于低水位削减了德国最大炼油厂的原油加工量，同时炼油企业奥地利油气集团德国有限公司最近报告说，其柴油和取暖油供应量将减少。
据费氏全球能源咨询公司（FGE）称，欧洲目前面临每天大约150万桶的严重柴油短缺，由于消费者用石油产品取代天然气，这一柴油缺口可能会扩大。这家行业咨询公司估计，欧洲生产中间馏分油（包括柴油）的利润率预计将在冬季升至每桶70美元的创纪录水平。欧洲洲际期货交易所（ICE Futures Europe）公布的数据显示，目前欧洲生产中间馏分油利润率在每桶55美元左右。
IEA称，今年第四季度和明年第一季度，经合组织欧洲地区对非公路用柴油和燃料油的需求将同比日增22万桶。相比之下，该地区去年对柴油类燃料的需求为每天626万桶。
亚洲和美国的柴油利润也出现上涨，美国全国馏分油库存处于20多年来的最低水平。美国中西部最大炼油厂8月25日发生火灾，可能导致本已很低的馏分油储备下降，而此时该地区的农民正准备收割成熟庄稼。这些计划外的中断增加了预定的季节性维护，表明美国可能无法在未来几个月维持创纪录的燃料出口，尤其是在东北部寒冷天气降临的时候。咨询公司ESAI的分析师琳达•吉塞克表示，供暖季节可能会使美国东海岸的柴油日消耗量增加40万桶。
伍德麦肯兹驻新加坡高级分析师Daphne Ho说，过去两年全球每天损失300万桶炼油产能更是雪上加霜。
彭博情报分析师Horace Chan和Henik Fung在一份报告中指出，9月至10月期间亚洲各地炼油厂的维护作业可能会进一步收紧市场，并推高利润率。
他们表示：“根据关键交易中心极低的库存数据，这使得柴油短缺的可能性变得特别大。”
李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社
原文如下：
Diesel Pinch Looms
The global diesel market looks set to get even tighter as power generators and industrial users seek relief from surging natural gas prices.
Consumers are seeking alternatives to gas after prices rallied to unprecedented levels as Europe shuns the larger producer's barrels. It’s also happening as global diesel stockpiles remain unusually low at a time inventories are typically expanding in preparation for a boost in consumption over winter.
The International Energy Agency this month raised its forecast for global oil demand growth on expectations for more fuel-switching from gas, which it said will be concentrated in Europe and the Middle East. US exports of crude and products rose to a record last week, with diesel leading the surge.
The rush for the fuel is a boon for refiners, but will also add more inflationary pressure to the global economy.
A flotilla of tankers carrying diesel already is steaming from the Middle East and Asia to Europe, which is also grappling with disruptions caused by shallow water on the Rhine. Shell Plc cut production at Germany’s biggest refinery due to the low levels, while refiner OMV Germany GmbH recently reported a run on supplies of diesel and heating oil.
Europe is facing a diesel shortfall of around 1.5 million barrels a day and the deficit could expand as consumers replace natural gas with oil products, according to FGE. The industry consultant estimates profits in Europe from making middle distillates -- which include diesel -- are expected to rally to a record $70 a barrel during winter. Margins are currently around $55, according to ICE Futures Europe data.
Year-on-year demand for non-road gas oil and fuel oil will rise by 220,000 barrels a day in OECD Europe in the fourth and first quarters, according to the IEA. To put that in context, the region’s demand for diesel-type fuels was 6.26 million barrels a day last year.
Diesel profits have also rallied in Asia and the US, where nationwide distillate stockpiles are at the lowest for the time of year in more than two decades. A fire at the largest US Midwest refinery on Thursday threatens to cut already low reserves just as farmers in the region are preparing to harvest. Such unplanned outages add to scheduled seasonal maintenance, indicating the US may not be able to sustain record-high fuel exports in the coming months, especially when cold weather descends in the Northeast. The heating season could boost East Coast diesel use by 400,000 barrels per day, according to Linda Giesecke, an analyst from consultancy ESAI.
According to Daphne Ho, a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. in Singapore. That’s been compounded by the loss of 3 million barrels a day of oil refining capacity over the past two years, she added.
Refinery maintenance across Asia during September and October could further tighten the market and drive profit margins higher, according to a note from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Horace Chan and Henik Fung.
“This makes a diesel crunch particularly likely, based on critically-low inventory data at key trading hubs,” they said.
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