未来5年全球陆上钻机使用量将大幅增加

据美国钻井网站2022年8月25日伦敦报道，受大宗商品价格上涨和能源安全压力增加的推动，总部设在英国的市场研究和情报公司韦斯特伍德全球能源公司（Westwood Global Energy）8月25日公布了全球陆上钻机市场健康复苏路线图。 

韦斯特伍德全球能源公司认为，许多地区在2020年已从全球经济急剧下滑中恢复过来，这好于此前的预期。2020年全球陆上钻井数量降至最低水平，约为3.9万口，但预计今年全球陆上钻井数量将达到4.96万口，到2026年将攀升至约6万口。 

随着钻井需求的增加以及大宗商品价格的上涨，一些地区的陆上钻机日费也在上涨。今年迄今美国的钻机日费率上涨了25%，第二季度的钻机平均日费率达到2.65万美元。其他地区，如中东，由于长期合同和大型国家石油公司拥有的钻井船队的存在，钻机日费率更加稳定。  

由于运营商专注于开发更复杂的油藏，美国对超规格自动化钻机需求的增长也意味着，由于供应紧张，这些设备的日费率将达到3万美元左右。在美国之外，哥伦比亚和阿曼等国家对高规格钻机的需求也很大，哥伦比亚具有自动化能力钻机的日费已达到4.5万美元。

韦斯特伍德全球能源公司认为：“在经历了2020年和2021年的挫折后，钻机市场开始复苏是令人鼓舞的，但我们预计在整个预测期内，全球钻机仍将出现严重的供过于求。”

韦斯特伍德全球能源公司说：“与去年的预测相比，增加国内能源产量确保供应安全的需要无疑对复苏的速度产生了影响。受到制裁导致石油和天然气价格高于预期，支撑了全球钻机的需求。”

韦斯特伍德全球能源公司陆上能源服务研究分析师Todd Jensen表示：“加上西方国家希望填补供应留下的缺口，这增加了国内产量的需求，并为其他出口国增加产量打开了大门。”

尽管需求前景乐观，但钻机供应过剩仍将是该行业的一个关键因素，因为需求不太可能回到2014年前的低迷水平，导致新建钻机建设激增。 虽然今年的利用率从去年的43%增加到45%，预计到2026年将增长到53%，但钻机需求数量仍将远远低于最大产量。

与此同时，对自动化钻机（目前仅占总钻机数量的16%）的日益关注，也可能导致这些钻机的需求超过供应，这一趋势已经在美国特别注意到了，一些钻井承包商预计将在2023年年中耗尽其超规格钻机的可用供应。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

onshore Drilling Rig Use To Increase Over The Next Five Years

The specialist energy market research and consultancy firm Westwood Global Energy has revealed a healthy recovery roadmap for the global land rig market, driven by higher commodity pricing and mounting pressures around energy security.

Westwood expects many regions to recover from the dramatic global downturn throughout 2020 better than previously expected. In 2020, levels reached a low of around 39,000 wells drilled onshore globally, but activity in 2022 is expected to reach 49,600 before climbing to around 60,000 wells in 2026.

The increase in drilling demand combined with higher commodity pricing has seen land drilling rig dayrates increase in several regions. The US has seen dayrates increase by 25 percent over 2022, with average dayrates for the second quarter of 2022 reaching $26,500. Other regions such as the Middle East have more stable pricing due to longer-term contracts and the presence of large National Oil Company-owned rig fleets.

As operators focus on developing more complex reservoirs, growing demand for super-spec automated rigs in the US has also meant that these units are reaching dayrates in the mid-$30,000s due to tight supply. Outside of the US, countries such as Colombia and Oman are also experiencing high demand for high-spec rigs, with Colombia seeing dayrates reaching $45,000 for units with automation capabilities.

“It’s encouraging to see the market begin to get back on its feet after the setbacks from 2020 and 2021, but there will still be a significant oversupply of rigs globally, which we expect to see throughout the forecast period.”

“The need for greater domestic energy production to ensure the security of supply has no doubt had an impact on the speed of recovery that we’re seeing in comparison to last year’s forecast. The sanctions imposed have led to higher-than-expected oil and gas prices, supporting rig demand globally.”

“This, coupled with Western countries looking to plug the gaps left by supply, has increased the need for greater domestic production and opened the door for other exporting countries to increase output,” Todd Jensen, Research Analyst, onshore Energy Services at Westwood said.

Despite a positive outlook for demand, the oversupply of rigs will remain a key factor in the sector, with demand unlikely to return to the pre-2014 downturn levels that led to a surge in newbuild rig construction. While utilization in 2022 has increased to 45 percent, from 43 percent in 2021, and is forecast to grow to 53 percent by 2026, numbers will remain well below maximum capacity.

At the same time, the increased focus on automated rigs, which currently account for just 16 percent of the overall rig fleet, could also lead to demand outweighing the supply of these rigs, a trend that is already being noted in the US specifically, where some drilling contractors are expecting to exhaust their available supplies of super-spec rigs by mid-2023.