据美国彭博新闻社2022年8月25日报道，据德勤会计师事务所统计，美国页岩生产商今年有望获得近2000亿美元的收入，这足以使美国页岩行业在2024年前摆脱债务，并可能为转向更多的天然气生产提供资金。
德勤会计师事务所在一份报告中称，高油价和严格的资本支出意味着美国水力压裂企业将迎来有记录以来最赚钱的一年，这是全球趋势的一部分，油气行业将创造创纪录的1.4万亿美元自由现金流。在偿还债务和回报股东之后，由于全球范围内的高需求和高价格，美国页岩生产商可能会把更多收入放在天然气生产上。
德勤会计师事务所美国石油、天然气和化工业务主管艾米•克尼斯在接受采访时表示：“我们看到上游业务正转向天然气。”页岩运营商“将加大对美国页岩气盆地的投资”，并可能有足够的剩余资金增加对低碳燃料的投资。
今年油气行业繁荣的关键区别并不在于价格高，而是与历史标准相比，该行业缺乏资本支出。德勤会计师事务所公布的数据显示，与2014年油价还在每桶100美元左右时相比，全球运营商目前在油气生产项目上的支出减少了大约60%。
报告称：“投资正与油价脱钩，资本支出纪律如今已成为常态。”
这一趋势在美国页岩行业最为明显，从2010年到2019年，美国页岩行业消耗了大约3000亿美元现金。但对于那些在疫情中幸存下来的公司来说，收益是实实在在的。美国页岩行业将在2021年和2022年收回全部亏损，并在这十年的剩余时间里有望实现进一步盈利。德勤会计师事务所的分析假设，今年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶106美元，2023年为每桶81美元。布伦特原油期货价格周三（8月24日）报收于每桶101.22美元。
报告还显示，利润规模开始来自美国液化天然气运营商。他们预计今年将赚590亿美元，是去年的两倍，并轻松收回2013年至2020年450亿美元的亏损。
李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社
原文如下：
U.S. shale on track for $200 billion year, could erase its debt by 2024
U.S. shale producers are on course to make nearly $200 billion this year, enough to make the industry debt-free by 2024 and potentially fund a pivot toward more natural gas production, according to Deloitte LLP.
High oil prices and disciplined capital spending mean American frackers are on course for their most profitable year on record, part of a global trend that will see the oil and gas industry generate a record $1.4 trillion of free cash flow, Deloitte said in a report. After paying down debt and rewarding shareholders, US producers will likely focus more on natural gas production due to high demand and prices around the world.
“We see a shift in upstream activity toward natural gas,” Amy Chronis, Deloitte’s US oil, gas and chemicals leader, said in an interview. Shale operators “will double down on US natural gas basins” and may have enough money left over to increase investments in low-carbon fuels.
The key difference with this year’s oil and gas boom is not so much high prices, but the industry’s lack of capital expenditure compared with historical norms. Global operators are spending about 60% less on oil and gas production projects now than they were in 2014, the last time oil was trading around $100 a barrel, Deloitte’s data show.
“Investments are decoupling from oil prices and capex discipline is now a norm,” the report said.
The trend is most powerfully seen in US shale, which burned through about $300 billion of cash from 2010 to 2019. But for those companies that survived the pandemic, the bounty is well and truly here. The industry will have made back that entire loss in 2021 and 2022, with further profits on the horizon for the rest of the decade. Deloitte’s analysis assumes an average Brent oil price of $106 a barrel for 2022 and $81 a barrel for 2023. Brent futures settled at $101.22 a barrel on Wednesday.
The report also showed the scale of the profits beginning to come from US liquefied natural gas operators. They are expected to make $59 billion this year, double last year’s amount and easily making back $45 billion of losses from 2013 to 2020.
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