据烃加工网8月26日报道，根据我们最新的钻探生产力报告，EIA估计，2022年9月，得克萨斯州南部鹰福特地区的原油日均产量将达120万桶。尽管近期产量有所增加，但鹰福特地区的原油产量仍低于疫情前（2020年4月为140万桶/天），远低于2015年3月170万桶/天的历史最高水平。
由于价格上涨，我们估计，在鹰福特地层中，经济可采石油资源（生产商认为可以盈利生产的可采油的数量）2022年上半年增加到84亿桶，而2020年为5亿桶。根据我们的分析，从2020年到2022年上半年，原油价格翻了一番还多，激励了此前边缘地区的未来发展。
鹰福特地层的分析重点是探明储量和经济可采资源。探明储量是指在考虑到现有经济和运行条件的情况下，数据能够以合理的确定性证明未来几年可以从已知储层中开采的原油和天然气数量。相反，经济上可回收的资源在很大程度上取决于价格和成本假设。经济上可开采的资源是对未来原油和天然气数量和产量不太确定的估计。
如果油价过低，无法提供开发油井的投资回报，生产商就不会投资钻井。鹰福特地层同时生产原油和天然气，因此其盈利能力不仅取决于过去的原油或天然气产量，还取决于生产商对未来天然气和原油价格的预测。
郝芬 译自 烃加工网
原文如下：
Crude oil production in Texas’s Eagle Ford region has been increasing since February 2022
According to our latest Drilling Productivity Report, the EIA estimates that crude oil production in the Eagle Ford region in southern Texas will average 1.2 MMbpd during September 2022. Despite recent increases, less crude oil is being produced in the Eagle Ford region than before the pandemic—1.4 MMbpd in April 2020—and much less than the all-time high of 1.7 MMbpd in March 2015.
Because prices increased, we estimate that economically recoverable oil resources (the amount of recoverable oil that producers believe can be profitably produced) in the Eagle Ford formation, increased to 8.4 billion barrels in the first half of 2022, an increase from 0.5 B barrels in 2020. Between 2020 and the first half of 2022, crude oil prices more than doubled, according to our analysis, incentivizing future development in previously marginal areas.
This analysis of the Eagle Ford formation focuses on proved reserves and economically recoverable resources. Proved reserves are volumes of crude oil and natural gas that data demonstrate with reasonable certainty can be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs, considering existing economic and operating conditions. In contrast, economically recoverable resources vary considerably depending on price and cost assumptions. Economically recoverable resources represent a less certain estimate of future crude oil and natural gas volumes and production.
If prices are too low to provide a return on the investment of developing the well, producers will not invest in drilling the well. The Eagle Ford formation produces both crude oil and natural gas, so profitability is not only based on past crude oil or natural gas production rates but also on producers’ forecasts of future prices for natural gas and crude oil.
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