今年全球石油和天然气勘探活动将步履维艰

据美国钻井网站2022年9月8日报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究结果显示，今年全球石油和天然气勘探活动将步履维艰，由于油气行业努力摆脱疫情和随后的石油市场崩盘的影响，今年获得勘探许可证的区块数量和总探区面积降至接近历史低点。  

截至今年8月份，全球仅完成21轮油气勘探许可证出售招标，占去年前8个月举行的42轮招标的一半。今年迄今为止授予的探区总面积已缩减至32万平方公里，为20年来的最低水平。Rystad解释说，今年全球预计将启动44轮油气勘探许可证出售招标，比去年减少14轮，是2000年以来的最低水平。  

近几年来，全球油气勘探活动支出一直在下降，油气公司试图通过专注于核心生产资产和产量有保障的地区来限制风险，旨在简化运营，并在市场不确定性和衰退威胁下建立更有弹性的业务。 

政治形势也导致了油气勘探许可证出售招标的减少，许多政府暂停或停止此类招标，并鼓励油气公司在已授出的区块内结束油气勘探活动。这一趋势可能会持续下去，因为各国政府不那么热衷于投资化石燃料生产，而是放眼于未来的净零排放。

Rystad分析部门副总裁Aatisha Mahajan表示：“近几年来，全球油气勘探活动一直处于下降趋势，甚至在疫情和石油市场崩盘之前，这种趋势似乎将在今年和以后继续下去。油气公司不愿意承担在环境或政治敏感地区进行新勘探作业所带来的风险。”

陆上油气勘探部门是导致可授予探区面积下降的重要因素。许可证出售招标授予的陆上探区总面积已从2019年的56万平方公里大幅下降到今年迄今为止的仅11.5万平方公里。海上探区总面积在2019年达到高点以后在2020年急剧下降，随后在过去两年保持相对平稳。

今年，美国和澳大利亚完成的油气勘探许可证出售次数大幅下降。到目前为止，这些国家今年总共举行了5轮油气勘探许可证出售招标——美国和澳大利亚各1轮——低于去年前8个月的17轮招标（美国5轮，澳大利亚4轮等）。 美国许可证出售招标次数下降的主要原因是，墨西哥湾和阿拉斯加州库克湾的259和261宗许可证出售招标分别被取消。

亚洲地区的油气勘探许可证出售招标情况与此相反，马来西亚、印度尼西亚、印度和巴基斯坦的许可证出售招标活动和出售区块数量有所增加。全球油气勘探许可证发放数量的减少直接影响了已授出的探区面积，今年1月至8月期间，只有大约32万平方公里的历史最低水平。

油气勘探许可证出售活动的减少导致产能大国获得的勘探面积大幅下降，比一年前下降了90%，至9000平方公里，而非洲获得的油气勘探许可证面积下降了70%，仅为4.6万平方公里，主要分布在安哥拉、埃及、摩洛哥和津巴布韦，这是今年迄今为止唯一授出新油气勘探区块的4个非洲国家。 

另一方面，今年1月至8月，亚洲地区的新油田开发面积比去年同期增长了近4倍，而南美地区的新油田开发面积则增长了140%。

巴西是全球今年迄今为止授出油气勘探区块最多的国家，在第三轮油气区块出售招标中授出了59个区块。 欧洲石油巨头壳牌公司和道达尔能源公司分别获得了6个区块和2个区块。位于图卡诺盆地、圣埃斯皮里图盆地、波蒂瓜尔盆地、雷康卡沃盆地和塞尔希培阿拉戈斯盆地剩余的51个陆上区块被区域公司3R石油公司（6个区块）、NTF（2个）、Petro Victory能源公司（19个）、Origem能源公司（18个）、Imetame能源公司（3个）、Petroborn Oleo公司（2个）和CE Engenharia公司(1个）收购。  

在巴西之后，挪威在去年挪威大陆架预定区域APA招标中获得了54份新许可证，印度在第6轮和 第7轮OLAP招标中获得了29个区块，哈萨克斯坦在第4轮石油和天然气区块招标中获得了11个区块。  

1月至8月期间，非洲也有一些零星的招标活动，埃及提供了9个区块的勘探权，安哥拉提供了两个区块。南美洲乌拉圭也进行了海上油气勘探许可证出售招标。 

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Global Oil And Gas Licensing Falls To All-Time Lows

Global oil and gas exploration is set to falter this year as the number of licensed blocks and total acreage fall to near all-time lows as the sector struggles to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing oil market crash, Rystad Energy research shows.

only 21 lease rounds were completed globally through August this year, half of the 42 rounds held in the first eight months of 2021. The acreage awarded so far this year has shrunk to a 20-year low of 320,000 square kilometers. Global lease rounds are expected to total 44 this year, 14 less than in 2021 and the lowest level since 2000, Rystad explained.

Global spending on exploration has been falling in recent years as oil and gas companies seek to limit risk by focusing on core producing assets and regions with guaranteed output, aiming to streamline their operations and build a more resilient business amid market uncertainty and the threat of a recession.

The political landscape is also contributing to the decrease in license awards, with many governments pausing or halting leases and encouraging companies to wrap up exploration activity within already awarded blocks. This trend is likely to continue as governments are less eager to invest in fossil fuel production and instead look ahead to a net zero future.

“Global exploration activity has been on a downward trend in recent years, even before the Covid-19 pandemic and oil market crash, and that looks set to continue this year and beyond. Oil and gas companies are unwilling to take on the increased risk associated with new exploration or exploration in environmentally or politically sensitive areas,” Aatisha Mahajan, vice president of analysis at Rystad Energy.

The onshore exploration sector is a significant contributor to the decline in awarded acreage. Total onshore acreage awarded in leasing activity has plummeted from more than 560,000 square kilometers in 2019 to a mere 115,000 square kilometers so far this year. Offshore leased acreage also hit a high point in 2019 before dropping off a cliff in 2020 and has remained relatively flat in the past two years.

Concluded lease rounds have dropped significantly in the larger producer, the US, and Australia this year. These countries have held five lease rounds put together so far this year – three in the larger producer and one each in the US and Australia – down from 17 rounds in the first eight months of 2021 (five in the US, and four in Australia). The drop in the US is primarily driven by the cancellation of Lease Sales 259 and 261 in the Gulf of Mexico and Cook Inlet in Alaska.

Asian licensing has bucked the trend with increased activity and blocks awarded in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and Pakistan. The global decline in licensing rounds has directly affected the awarded acreage, which has hit an all-time low for the January to August period of about 320,000 square kilometers.

The decline in leasing activity has resulted in a considerable drop in the larger producer acreage awards, falling 90 percent from a year ago to 9,000 square kilometers, while licensed acreage in Africa shrank 70 percent to just 46,000 square kilometers spread across Angola, Egypt, Morocco, and Zimbabwe, the only African countries to award new exploration acreage to date in 2022.

On the other hand, new acreage awarded in Asia between January and August nearly quadrupled from the same period last year, while South American awarded acreage surged by 140 percent.

Brazil is the largest contributor in terms of blocks awarded so far this year, with 59 auctioned during its Third Permanent Offer Round. European majors Shell and TotalEnergies took all eight offshore blocks on offer – six and two, respectively. The remaining 51 onshore blocks in the Tucano, Espirito Santo, Potiguar, Reconcavo, and Sergipe Alagoas basins went to regional players 3R Petroleum (six blocks), NTF (two), Petro Victory Energy (19), Origem Energia (18), Imetame Energia (three), Petroborn Oleo (two), and CE Engenharia (one).

Other sizeable block awards after Brazil were Norway with 54 new licenses in its APA 2021 round, India with 29 blocks its OLAP Rounds 6 & 7, and Kazakhstan’s fourth oil and gas auction round in which 11 blocks were awarded.

There was also some sporadic activity in Africa between January and August, with Egypt providing rights to explore in nine blocks and Angola granting two blocks. South America also saw an offshore licensing round in Uruguay, where three exploration blocks were awarded – blocks OFF-2 and OFF-7 to Shell and Block OFF-6 to US independent APA. Challenger Energy signed a 30-year license for OFF-1 through direct negotiation with the government.