油价跌破90美元 欧佩克+备受关注

欧佩克+近日将其原油日产量目标削减10万桶，由于欧佩克+产量不足，此举在很大程度上是象征性的  

在最初的油价飙升之后，市场似乎已经将欧佩克+削减原油产量目标的决定视为对需求疲软的承认  

随着对经济衰退的担忧加剧，欧佩克+迫切希望保持油价高企，欧佩克+很可能会被迫再次减产 

据油价网报道，今年冬天欧佩克+可能不得不大幅削减其集体原油产量目标，因为欧洲正艰难应对严重的能源危机，经济衰退正在逼近，而亚洲也显示出石油需求减弱的迹象。 

欧佩克+本周宣布的每天10万桶原油的象征性减产在很大程度上与石油市场平衡无关。 但分析师称，这向市场传递了一个强烈的信息，即欧佩克+联盟已重新进入价格观察模式，并似乎决心不让油价跌至每桶90美元下方太远。 

对经济衰退的恐惧 

在欧佩克+出人意料地削减目标产量（尽管可以忽略不计）引发最初的反弹后，石油市场将欧佩克+的举措视为对需求下降预期的承认。 再加上疫情因素，9月6日和9月7日的油价承压。 布伦特原油价格本周跌至每桶90美元以下，这是自今年1月地缘政治爆发冲突前以来的最低水平。 此外，能源危机和高昂的物价引发了欧洲主要经济体即将到来的经济衰退，以及包括美联储在内的中央银行激进的加息，现在世界经济前景看起来并不乐观。

惠誉评级公司在上周的一份报告中称，目前看来，由于天然气危机不断加深，欧元区可能出现经济衰退。

路透社亚洲大宗商品和能源专栏作家Clyde Russell认为，虽然目前看来欧佩克+正试图守住每桶90美元的关口，但它可能不得不进一步减产，并可能在明年初最终守住每桶50美元的油价。 

供应的不确定性与欧佩克+的价格观察模式  

由于供应不确定性，欧佩克+和沙特阿拉伯表示将密切关注石油市场的发展也就不足为奇了。 欧佩克+联盟从未公开承认过它倾向于某个价格的原油，但目前看来，欧佩克+似乎决意不让油价下跌太多。 

欧佩克+9月5日决定，它可以在任何时候召开会议，讨论其他行动。 欧佩克+表示，该组织决定“如有必要，请主席考虑随时召开欧佩克和非欧佩克部长级会议，以解决市场发展问题”。

通过赋予欧佩克+联盟主席、沙特能源大臣在需要时随时召开会议的权力，欧佩克+向全球石油市场发出了一个强烈的信息：减产可以在短时间内“以任何形式”进行。 这可能意味着单边削减可能也不会被排除在外。 

虽然10月份的象征性减产并没有改变与基本供需平衡有关的任何事情，但欧佩克+随时准备在必要时进行干预，这表明沙特阿拉伯和其他有影响力的欧佩克+成员国认为，近几个月来油价已经出现了足够多的下跌。 他们会努力保持油价的“稳定”。 换句话说，他们认为原油价格应该稳定在每桶90美元至100美元之间。 

盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，由于布伦特原油价格9月7日跌至每桶90美元下方，经济衰退担忧成为重中之重，预计“接下来欧佩克+会进行口头干预”。

原油经纪商PVM石油协会表示，与潜在的供应短缺相比，欧佩克+联盟以外的原油产量在今年年底前有望增加。 

PVM石油协会在9月7日发表的一份报告中表示：“由于协议仍然难以达成，而欧佩克+又不愿打开阀门，全球原油供应的长期上升轨迹可能很快就会结束。”

“因此，目前的紧缩可能会在今年最后3个月内加剧。 对于那些押注到今年年底油价将进一步下跌的人来说，这应该被视为一个早期预警信号。“

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

All Eyes On OPEC+ As Oil Prices Drop Below $90

·     OPEC+ cut its production target by 100,000 bpd this week, a move that was largely symbolic due to the group’s underproduction.

·     After an initial spike in prices, markets appear to have taken the OPEC+ decision to cut its production target as an admission of weak demand.

·     With recession fears growing and OPEC+ eager to keep prices high, the group may well be forced to make another production cut.

OPEC+ may have to make much deeper cuts to their collective oil production targets this winter as a recession looms over Europe as it struggles with a severe energy crisis and the signs of waning oil demand. 

The token 100,000-barrels-per-day (bpd) cut announced this week is largely irrelevant to the oil market balance. But it sent a strong message to the market that the OPEC+ alliance is back in price-watch mode and appears determined not to let oil fall too far below $90 a barrel, analysts say. 

Recession Fears

After an initial rally on the surprise - albeit negligible - cut to their production targets, the oil market saw the OPEC+ move as an admission of expectations of lower demand. This, coupled with fresh "zero-COVID" policy lockdowns in Asia, weighed on oil prices on Tuesday and Wednesday. Brent Crude prices fell this week to below $90 per barrel - the lowest level since January, before the war. Add to this the expected imminent recession in major European economies - triggered by the energy crisis and sky-high prices - and the aggressive interest rate hikes from central banks, including the Fed, and the economic prospects for the world don't look great right now. 

A recession in the Eurozone now appears likely due to the deepening gas crisis, Fitch Ratings said in a report last week.

While it currently looks like OPEC+ is trying to defend the $90 a barrel mark, it may have to cut production much deeper and could end up defending $50 a barrel oil early next year, Clyde Russell, Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist at Reuters, argues. 

Supply Uncertainties and OPEC+ In Price-Watch Mode

Due to the uncertainties, it's no surprise that OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia in particular signaled they would watch oil market developments carefully. The alliance has never publicly admitted that it prefers a certain price of oil, but right now, it looks like it is set on not letting prices fall too much. 

OPEC+ decided on Monday that it could call a meeting at any time to discuss other actions. The group decided to "Request the Chairman to consider calling for an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting anytime to address market developments, if necessary," OPEC said.

By giving the alliance's chairman, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the power to call a meeting at any time if needed, OPEC+ sent a strong message to the oil market: cuts could come on short notice, "in any form." This could mean that unilateral cuts may not be off the table, either. 

While the token cut for October doesn't change anything relating to fundamental supply/demand balances, OPEC+'s readiness to intervene whenever it deems necessary suggests that Saudi Arabia and other influential OPEC+ members believe that oil prices have seen enough sell-offs in recent months already. And they will fight to keep them "stable." In other words, in the $90-$100 range.

As Brent prices dipped below $90 on Wednesday with recession fears front and center, expect "verbal OPEC+ intervention next," Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

According to oil broker PVM Oil Associates, the expected rise in oil production from outside the OPEC+ alliance by the end of this year "pales in comparison to the potential supply shortfall on the horizon."

"And with the deal still proving elusive and OPEC+ refraining from opening the taps, the long-running upward trajectory in global oil supply could soon come to an end," PVM Oil Associates said in a note on Wednesday. 

"As a result, the current tightness could intensify during the last three months of the year. This should be taken as an early warning sign for those betting on further price downside in the year-end period."