据美国钻井网站2022年9月8日报道， 美国能源信息署（EIA）9月8日发布了其最新的短期能源展望（STEO）报告，报告中提供了该机构对今年和明年布伦特原油价格的最新预测。
根据9月份的STEO报告，EIA预计今年布伦特原油现货均价为每桶104.21美元，明年为每桶96.91美元。从季度来看，STEO报告预测，今年第三季度布伦特原油现货的平均价格将为每桶103.89美元，今年第四季度将为每桶97.98美元。
EIA在8月份发布的上一份STEO报告中预测，今年布伦特原油现货价格将达到每桶104.78美元，明年将达到每桶95.13美元。EIA 8月的STEO报告预测，今年第三季度布伦特原油现货平均价格将达到每桶105.82美元，在今年第四季度将达到每桶98.30美元。
EIA在其最新的STEO报告中表示，“8月份布伦特原油近月期货平均价格为每桶98美元，比7月份每桶低了大约7美元”，并补充称，8月份布伦特原油价格下跌“可能反映了全球石油库存的整体增加”。
EIA在STEO报告中补充道：“我们估计，到2023年底，原油价格将普遍保持在8月份的平均水平附近。尽管我们预计原油均价明年将基本维持在每桶90美元—100美元之间，但在这些均价附近大幅波动的可能性依然很高。”
在最新的STEO报告中，EIA强调了近期发生的几起事件，“加剧了原油市场和我们预测中的不确定性”。这些事件包括最近欧佩克+决定在10月份将原油日产量减少10万桶的影响，未来是否会进一步减产，以及目前战略石油储备的原油协调释放可能在11月份到期的不确定性。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油期货价格为每桶88.18美元。今年以来，布伦特原油期货的最低交易价格是1月3日的每桶78.98美元，而迄今为止的最高交易价格是3月8日的每桶127.98美元。
今年2月，随着地缘政治军事冲突升级，油价多年来首次飙升至每桶100美元以上。布伦特原油期货在9月7日报收于每桶88美元，而在8月底前报收于每桶105.09美元。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Where Is the Oil Price Heading in 2022 and 2023?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which offers the organization’s latest Brent crude oil price forecasts for this year and the next.
According to the September STEO, the EIA sees the Brent spot price averaging $104.21 per barrel in 2022 and $96.91 per barrel in 2023. Broken down quarterly, the STEO forecasts that the commodity will average $103.89 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and $97.98 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022.
In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $104.78 per barrel in 2022 and $95.13 per barrel in 2023. The EIA’s August STEO forecasted that the Brent spot average price would come in at $105.82 per barrel in the third quarter of 2022 and $98.30 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022.
“The monthly average Brent front-month futures price was $98 per barrel in August, about $7 per barrel lower than in July,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO, adding that the lower prices in August “likely reflected overall increases in global petroleum inventories”.
“We estimate that crude oil prices will generally remain near August average levels through the end of 2023. Although we expect average crude oil prices to mostly remain between $90 per barrel - $100 per barrel through next year, the possibility for significant volatility around those averages is high,” the EIA added in the STEO.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted several recent events “contributing to increased uncertainty in the crude oil market and in our forecast”. These included the impact of the recent OPEC decision to reduce crude oil production by 0.1 million barrels per day in October and whether there will be further production cuts in the future,and uncertainty around the potential expiration of the current coordinated petroleum release from strategic reserves in November.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $88.18 per barrel. The lowest the commodity has traded this year, so far, was $78.98 per barrel on January 3, while the highest, so far, was $127.98 per barrel on March 8.
Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years in February as Russian forces escalated a conflict with Ukraine. The commodity closed at $88 per barrel on September 7 after closing at $105.09 per barrel near the end of August.
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