随着全球天然气需求打破新纪录，美国页岩生产商正努力跟上需求。
上周，美国天然气价格下跌，但今年冬天美国国内外天然气价格可能会飙升。
夏季比预期更热，缺乏替代能源，使得美国库存低于季节平均水平。
事实上，天然气每百万英热单位下跌近一美元，这得益于库存的可观增加。然而，库存仍低于季节平均水平，出口正以创纪录的速度增长，天然气生产商开始努力满足国内外需求。
路透社（Reuters）的约翰·坎普（John Kemp）在最近的一篇专栏文章中写道，美国国内和国际天然气消费量已升至创纪录高位，占美国天然气产量大部分的页岩生产商正艰难赶上这一需求。
与此同时，路透社的市场分析师指出，尽管每周库存有所增加，但在过去12年的这个时候，库存仍处于第二低水平。他还补充说，尽管价格上涨，但库存水平没有任何改善的迹象。
当然这些都不能表明，随着北半球进入冬季，美国或国际市场的天然气价格正在下降。相反，最新数据表明，天然气消费者面临更多的财务困境。他们在一定程度上证实了今年早些时候作出的预测。
今年春天，投资公司Goehring&Rozencwajg的负责人表示，到2022年底，美国天然气价格将与国际价格趋同。他们指出，一些其他分析师倾向于认为美国大部分天然气产量集中在少数几个油田，比如Marcellus和Haynesville就占总产量的40%。
据最新数据显示，二叠纪盆地的天然气产量占美国总天然气产量的12%，二叠纪盆地的钻机数量已连续两周下降。钻探减少意味着更少的伴生气生产。
与此同时，在需求方面，受经济反弹的推动，美国今年的发电量有望创下历史新高。夏天炎热的气候因素也是原因之一。寒冷的冬天肯定会使天然气消耗量更高。
梁金燕 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
A Natural Gas Shortage Is Looming For The U.S.
As natural gas demand around the world breaks new records, U.S. shale producers are struggling to keep up with demand.
While natural gas prices in the United States fell after a railway strike was averted last week, it looks likely that prices both at home and abroad will spike this winter.
A hotter-than-expected summer and a lack of alternative energy sources have left U.S. inventories below the seasonal average.
Last week, the media rushed to report that natural gas prices in the United States had fallen sharply after trade unions and railway companies reached a tentative deal that averted a potentially devastating strike.
Indeed, natural gas prices fell by nearly a dollar per million British thermal units, helped by a respectable build in inventories. And yet, inventories remain below the seasonal average, exports are running at record rates, and producers are beginning to struggle to meet demand, both at home and abroad.
Reuters’ John Kemp wrote in a recent column that domestic and international gas consumption had risen to record highs, and shale producers—the ones that account for the bulk of U.S. natural gas output—were having a hard time catching up with this demand.
Meanwhile, although higher on a weekly basis, inventories remained at the second-lowest for this time of the year for the last 12 years, Reuters’ market analyst noted. He also added there were no signs of any improvement in the level of inventories despite the rise in prices.
None of this suggests lower prices for natural gas are coming to either the United States or international markets as the northern hemisphere heads into winter. On the contrary, the latest figures suggest more financial pain for gas consumers. And they /confirm/i, to an extent, forecasts made earlier this year.
In the spring, the principals of investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg said U.S. gas prices will converge with international prices towards the end of 2022. They noted something few other analysts tend to mention: the concentration of much of U.S. gas production in a handful of fields, with just two—Marcellus and Haynesville—accounting for as much as 40 percent of the total.
The Permian contributes another 12 percent of the U.S. total gas output, and the rig count in the Permian has been down for two weeks in a row, according to the latest data. Less drilling means less associated gas to add to the national total.
Meanwhile, on the demand side, electricity generation in the United States is seen reaching a record high this year, Kemp noted in his column, driven by the post-pandemic economic rebound. A hotter summer also contributed. A cold winter would certainly push gas consumption even higher.
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