对经济放缓的担忧限制了原油价格

石油市场目前非常关注熊市信号，原油价格反映出对经济放缓、美国经济放缓或衰退以及欧洲经济衰退的担忧  

全球海上石油贸易正在放缓，运费率正在回归到更为正常的水平  

惠誉国际评级认为欧元区和英国目前预计将在今年晚些时候进入衰退，而美国将在2023年中期遭遇温和衰退

据油价网9月18日报道，自6月初的近期高点以来，油价迄今每桶已经下跌大约30美元，当时美联储和其他国家央行还没有开始大举加息，以对抗失控的通胀。紧缩的货币政策预计将减缓经济增长，而一些金融市场指标表明，市场预计会出现衰退，这可能会减缓全球石油需求增长。 

最受关注的主要预测机构——石油输出国组织（欧佩克）、美国能源信息署和国际能源署——继续预计，今明两年全球石油需求都会增长，2023年的需求将超过疫情暴发前的水平。 

然而，石油市场目前非常关注熊市信号，油价反映出人们对经济放缓、欧洲主要经济体衰退以及美国经济放缓或衰退的担忧。

最近的几项金融和贸易指标都显示全球经济放缓，市场将其视为未来几个月经济衰退预期升温的信号。 

路透社高级市场分析师约翰·坎普指出，尽管美国就业市场稳定，经济活动水平仍然很高，但从股票期货来看，金融市场显示，未来6个月经济周期出现大幅下滑或陷入衰退的可能性更高。  

此外，石油期货的未平仓权益也在下降，因为许多投资者由于高波动性而逃离市场，从而加剧流动性下降带来的波动性。

在最近的一项评估中，指标显示全球海上石油贸易增长放缓，这一迹象表明经济放缓正在进行，主要市场的衰退可能很快成为现实，威胁到全球石油需求。 

全球海事和航运业研究和咨询服务提供商表示，本周德鲁里世界集装箱指数自去年4月以来首次跌破每个40英尺长集装箱运费5000美元，这是运费率“回归理智”的强烈信号。本周综合指数下跌8%，连续第29周下跌，与去年同期相比已下跌52%。 

惠誉国际评级近日表示，欧元区和英国目前预计将在今年晚些时候进入衰退，而美国将在2023年中期遭遇温和衰退，并将今年全球GDP增长预期下调至2.4%，比6月份的预测下调0.5个百分点。 目前预计2023年全球经济增长率仅为1.7%，下降1个百分点。

惠誉国际评级首席经济学家布莱恩·库尔顿表示：“近几个月来，全球经济经历了一场完美风暴，欧洲的天然气危机、加息速度急剧加快，以及房地产市场进一步下滑。”

石油市场也对持续上调利率带来的经济放缓感到担忧。克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特8月末表示，美联储在抑制通胀方面还有更多工作要做，关键利率需要在2023年初升至4%以上，并保持在这一水平。在连续两次加息75个基点（0.75%）后，美联储目前的目标政策利率在2.25%-2.5%之间。 

然而，欧佩克仍对全球经济增长持乐观态度，在最新的《月度石油市场报告》(MOMR)中称，今年的全球经济增长将保持在3.1%的强劲水平，明年将继续保持3.1%。这一预测表明，尽管市场担心经济衰退，但欧佩克预计全球石油需求将保持健康增长。

国际能源署将今年全球石油日需求增长预期下调11万桶，至200万桶。 

据石油经纪公司PVM oil Associates称，短期内的石油供应和需求一样不确定。“预测石油平衡的不确定因素可能是石油等式的供应端，但在预测未来石油需求方面显然也缺乏共识。这使得预测几乎是不可能的，在不久的将来没有任何确定性。”PVM oil Associates如是说。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Fears Of Economic Slowdown Cap Crude Prices

·     The oil market is currently very much focused on the bearish signals, with prices reflecting fears of slowdown , a slowdown or recession in the U.S., and a recession in Europe.

·     Global maritime trade is slowing down and freight rates are returning to more normal levels.

·     Fitch: The Eurozone and UK are now expected to enter recession later this year, while the U.S. will suffer a mild recession in mid-2023.

Oil prices have declined by around $30 a barrel since the recent peak in early June before the Fed and other central banks started aggressive interest rate hikes to fight runaway inflation.  The tightening monetary policy is expected to slow economic growth, while several financial market indicators suggest that the markets expect recessions, which could slow global oil demand growth. 

The most closely watched major forecasters – OPEC, EIA, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) – continue to expect growth in global oil demand both this year and next, with demand outpacing pre-COVID levels in 2023.

Yet, the oil market is currently very much focused on the bearish signals, with prices reflecting fears of an economic slowdown, a recession in Europe’s major economies, and a slowdown or recession in the United States. 

Several recent financial and trade indicators point to a slowdown, and the market is taking that as a cue for rising expectations of a recession at some point over the next few months. 

Despite a solid job market in the U.S. and still a high level of economic activity, the financial markets – as seen in equity futures – point to higher chances of a major decline in the economic cycle, or a recession, over the next six months, Reuters’s senior market analyst John Kemp notes. 

Then there is the falling open interest in oil futures as many investors have fled the market due to high volatility, thus exacerbating that volatility as liquidity drops. 

In one of the most recent assessments, indicators point to a global maritime trade growth slowdown, in a sign that the economic slowdown is underway and a recession in major markets could soon materialize, threatening oil demand. 

This week, the Drewry World Container Index fell below $5,000 per 40ft-foot container for the first time since April 2021—a strong signal of a “return to sanity” for freight rates, the provider of research and consulting services to the global maritime and shipping industry said. The composite index fell by 8% this week, the 29th consecutive weekly decrease, and has dropped by 52% when compared with the same week last year.

The Eurozone and UK are now expected to enter recession later this year, while the U.S. will suffer a mild recession in mid-2023, Fitch Ratings said this week, revising down its world GDP growth forecast to 2.4% in 2022, down by 0.5 percentage points from the June forecast. Global economic growth is now expected at just 1.7% in 2023, a cut of 1 percentage point. 

“We’ve had something of a perfect storm for the global economy in recent months, with the gas crisis in Europe, a sharp acceleration in interest rate hikes and a deepening property slump,” said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch. 

The oil market is also apprehensive of the slowdown expected from continued interest rate hikes. The Fed has more work to do in taming inflation, and the key interest rate needs to move up to above 4% by early 2023 and stay there, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said at the end of last month. The Fed’s current target policy rate is in the 2.25%-2.5% range, after two consecutive hikes of 75 basis points, or 0.75%.  

OPEC, however, remains upbeat on global economic growth, saying in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that growth is set to remain robust at 3.1% this year and another 3.1% next year, in a forecast suggesting that the cartel expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession. 

The IEA cut its global oil demand growth estimate by 110,000 bpd to 2 million bpd for 2022.  

Supply in the short term is as uncertain as demand is, according to oil broker PVM Oil Associates.

“The wild card in predicting oil balance might be the supply side of the oil equation but there is a tangible lack of consensus in foreseeing future oil demand, too. This makes forecasting close to impossible and no certainty is anticipated in the near future,” PVM said.