分析师们曾希望，10月份二叠页岩纪盆地的原油产量将创下历史新高，美国能源信息署（EIA）预测10月份二叠纪页岩盆地原油产量将日增6.6万桶
然而，由于二叠纪页岩盆地在用钻机数量的减少，分析师们可能很快就不得不修改这些预测
美国页岩钻井公司正在优先考虑股东回报和偿还债务，同时应对供应链问题和通货膨胀
据油价网9月14日报道，目前对美国原油产量增长的预测可能需要大幅修正，因为最近二叠纪页岩盆地在用钻机数量的下滑表明，由于供应链的限制和两位数的成本膨胀，10月份二叠纪盆地的原油产量可能会令人失望。
贝克休斯公司周五发布的最新统计数据显示，上周，由于美国在用钻机总数减少1部，二叠纪页岩盆地的在用钻机数量减少2部，至340部。
目前二叠纪页岩盆地的在用石油钻机数量为316部，为4个月来的最低水平。彭博新闻社 Opinion专栏作家Javier Blas认为，这表明美国最高产的页岩盆地的原油产量正在经历“明显的放缓”，而页岩盆地一直推动着美国原油产量的增长。
在用石油钻机数量从7月份的331部下降到现在的316部，这表明二叠纪地区的原油产量预测，以及美国原油产量增长需要重新调整。
由于页岩钻井公司优先考虑股东回报和偿还债务，即使油价在每桶90美元或100美元，他们也不会急于进行钻探作业。即使是那些计划增加钻井活动的公司也面临着供应链延误和高达20%的成本上涨。
与此同时，美国能源信息署（EIA）在本周发布的最新钻井生产力报告中称，10月份二叠纪页岩盆地原油产量将触及纪录高位，将比9月份日增6.6万桶，达到541.3万桶。
然而，并非所有人都如此乐观：先锋自然资源公司首席执行官斯科特·谢菲尔德上周表示，美国今明两年的原油产量增长可能会令人失望。
据路透社上周报道，谢菲尔德预测今年美国原油产量将日增50万桶，但由于限制因素，2023年的原油产量增幅可能低于这一数字。 EIA预计2023年美国原油产量将日增80万桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Analysts May Have Overhyped America’s Largest Oil Basin
· Analysts had hoped that oil production at the Permian Basin would hit record highs in October, with the EIA forecasting a 66,000-bpd increase.
· As the active rig count drops in the basin, however, analysts may soon have to revise those forecasts.
· Shale drillers are prioritizing returns to shareholders and paying down debts while at the same time dealing with supply chain problems and inflation.
Current forecasts of U.S. crude oil production growth may have to be significantly revised as the recent slide in active drilling rigs in the top shale basin, the Permian, suggests that output may disappoint due to supply chain constraints and cost inflation in the double digits.
The rig count in the Permian Basin dropped by 2 to 340 last week, as the number of total active drilling rigs in the United States dropped by 1, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.
The active oil rigs in the Permian now number 316 - the lowest in four months. This suggests that the most prolific U.S. shale basin, which continues to drive America’s oil production growth, is going through “a significant slowdown,” Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas argues.
The slowdown in activity, as evidenced by the drop in active oil rigs from 331 in July to 316 now, points to the fact that forecasts of Permian output, and by extension, U.S. crude oil production growth, need to be recalibrated lower.
As shale drillers prioritize returns to shareholders and paying down debts, they are not rushing to drill even at $90 or $100 oil. Even those planning an increase in drilling activity face supply chain delays and up to 20% higher costs.
At the same time, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report this week that crude oil production in the Permian is set to hit a record high next month, adding 66,000 bpd from September to reach 5.413 million bpd in October.
Yet not everyone is so optimistic: Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said last week that U.S. oil production growth would likely disappoint both this year and next.
Sheffield has forecast that U.S. oil production will add 500,000 bpd this year but in 2023 the production gains may be lower than this, due to constraints, Reuters reported last week. The EIA forecasts production growth of 800,000 bpd for 2023.
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