据油价网2022年9月13日报道，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）周二在一份预测报告中表示，全球经济今年将保持3.1%的强劲增长，明年将继续保持3.1%的增长。这表明，尽管市场担心经济衰退，但欧佩克仍预计全球石油需求将健康增长。
在今天发布的9月石油市场月度报告（MOMR）中，欧佩克没有改变其对经济增长的预测，并对今年和明年的全球经济增长趋势表示乐观。
欧佩克预计全球经济今明两年将增长3.1%，尽管其下调了对欧元区经济增长的预测，但欧佩克仍预计今年将增长3.1%，2023年欧元区将增长1.7%。这与分析人士和经济学家最近的预测相反。分析人士和经济学家预计，由于能源价格飙升对通货膨胀、工业和消费者信心造成压力，欧元区和几个欧盟成员国最早将在今年陷入经济衰退。
欧佩克在周二的MOMR中表示：“印度和欧元区等经济体在今年上半年表现出强劲的增长动力，很好地弥补了经济大国相对（可能是暂时的）较弱的表现。”
展望2023年，欧佩克指出：“尽管存在明显的下行风险，但全球经济增长预测也存在上行潜力。欧盟财政措施将在年底前支持经济增长，并可能在2023年继续保持稳定的增长势头。”
欧佩克表示，由于预期的强劲经济增长，石油需求将继续上升，特别是在旅游和运输行业复苏的推动下。该预计将导致全球石油日需求量在今明两年分别强劲增长310万桶和270万桶，超过疫情暴发前的水平，明年达到日均1.027亿桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC Upbeat On Global Economic Growth
Global economic growth is set to remain robust at 3.1% this year and another 3.1% next year, OPEC said on Tuesday in a forecast suggesting that the cartel expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession.
In its September Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published today, OPEC made no changes in its economic growth estimates and sounded an upbeat note about the trend of the global economy for 2022 and 2023.
The cartel expects the global economy to grow by 3.1% both this year and next, and although it revised down its estimate of the Eurozone economy, OPEC still sees 3.1% growth in 2022 and 1.7% increase in the euro area in 2023. That’s contrary to recent forecasts from analysts and economists who expect the Eurozone and several EU member states to be plunged into recessions as early as this year due to soaring energy prices weighing on inflation, industries, and consumer sentiment.
“Economies like India and the Euro-zone showed a strong growth dynamic in 1H22, compensating very well for the relatively — and likely temporary — weaker performance of the big countries,” OPEC said in its MOMR on Tuesday.
Looking at 2023, the cartel noted that “Despite the obvious downside risks, there is also upside potential to the global economic growth forecast. Fiscal measures in the EU support growth towards the end of the year and lead to the potential continuation of a stable dynamic in 2023.”
As a result of the expected robust economic growth, oil demand will continue to rise, especially driven by the recovery in travel and transportation, OPEC said. This is forecast to lead to robust overall growth in oil demand of 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 2.7 million bpd in 2023, surpassing the pre-COVID-19 levels, to stand at an average 102.7 million bpd next year.
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