据钻机地带9月19日报道,美国能源信息署(EIA)称,美国天然气生产商目前使用的钻机数量超过了2020年初疫情开始时的数量。
据EIA表示,在疫情暴发前,美国在用钻机数量总体上一直在下降。2020年1月31日,当美国卫生与公众服务部首次宣布进入与疫情有关的公共卫生紧急状态时,据贝克休斯报告称,美国有112台天然气钻机在作业。
2020年上半年,以天然气为导向的钻机数量持续下降,2020年7月24日达到68台的低点,这是贝克休斯自1987年以来的历史数据中最少的。
自那时以来,天然气钻机数量普遍在增加,并于2022年1月恢复到疫情前的水平。据今年9月9日贝克休斯报告称,美国有166台天然气钻机在作业,比疫情开始时多了54台。
随着美国天然气钻探的增加,EIA预计天然气产量也将增长。据政府估计,2022年8月,美国天然气日均产量为976亿立方英尺。据EIA认为,美国天然气生产将在2022-2023年预测期内增加,2023年12月将达到日均1005亿立方英尺。
美国天然气钻机的增长主要集中在横跨得克萨斯州和路易斯安那州的海恩斯维尔地区。2020年1月至2022年8月,海恩斯维尔的钻机数量增加了50%以上。尽管海恩斯维尔的油井相对较深,开发成本较高,但在海恩斯维尔钻探仍然经济实惠。海恩斯维尔的油井产能以及邻近美国墨西哥湾沿岸液化天然气(LNG)出口终端和主要工业天然气消费者吸引了运营商前往该地区。
截至2020年1月31日,宾夕法尼亚州和西弗吉尼亚州阿巴拉契亚地区的在用钻机几乎恢复到51台的水平。截至2022年7月29日,该地区拥有48台天然气钻机。过去10年来,油井生产率的提高、管道建设和外购能力的增加帮助阿巴拉契亚地区产量的长期增长趋势,然而,区域运输能力限制可能已开始限制该地区的钻井活动。
在横跨西得克萨斯州和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地地区,大多数天然气产量与油井生产的天然气有关。二叠纪盆地生产商在规划钻机部署是会考虑原油价格波动。2020年,由于疫情封锁措施达到峰值,原油价格和石油导向钻机数均出现下降。
2021年,西得克萨斯中质原油价格稳步上涨,全年均价为每桶68美元,而2020年为39美元/桶。WTI价格在2022年继续上涨,上半年平均每桶超过100美元。自2020年的低点以来,该地区的石油导向钻机数量也在普遍上升,但较2020年1月31日(疫情前的406台)钻机数量仍低15%。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下:
US Natural Gas Rig Numbers Surpass Pre-Pandemic Levels
U.S. natural gas producers are operating more drilling rigs now than at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) claimed.
EIA said that the number of operating rigs in the United States had generally been declining before the pandemic. On January 31, 2020 – when the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services first declared a public health emergency related to Covid-19 – Baker Hughes reported that 112 natural gas rigs were operating in the United States.
The number of natural gas-directed rigs continued to fall in the first half of 2020, reaching a low of 68 rigs on July 24, 2020, the fewest in Baker Hughes’s historical data, dating back to 1987.
Since then, the natural gas rig count has generally been increasing, returning to pre-pandemic levels in January 2022. On September 9, Baker Hughes reported that 166 natural gas rigs were operating in the United States, 54 more than at the outset of the pandemic.
As natural gas drilling increases in the United States, the EIA expects that production will grow as well. The Administration estimates that dry natural gas production averaged 97.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the United States during August 2022. The EIA believes that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase throughout the 2022-2023 forecast period, averaging 100.5 Bcf/d during December 2023.
Most of the growth in natural gas-directed rigs in the United States has been in the Haynesville region, which spans Texas and Louisiana. The rig count in Haynesville increased by more than 50 percent between January 2020 and August 2022. Even though Haynesville wells are relatively deeper and more expensive to develop, drilling in Haynesville remains economical. Haynesville’s well productivity and proximity to the U.S. Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and major industrial natural gas consumers draw operators to the region.
Rig activity in the Appalachia region of Pennsylvania and West Virginia is close to returning to the 51 operating rigs reported as of January 31, 2020. It stood at 48 natural gas-directed rigs as of July 29, 2022. Improved well productivity, pipeline buildouts, and increased takeaway capacity have aided the long-term trend of production growth in Appalachia over the past 10 years, however, regional transportation capacity limits may have begun to constrain drilling activity in the region.
In the Permian region, spanning West Texas and New Mexico, most natural gas production is associated with gas produced from oil wells. Permian producers respond to fluctuations in the crude oil price when planning their rig deployment. Crude oil prices and oil-directed rigs both declined in 2020 amid peak Covid-19 mitigation efforts.
In 2021, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price increased steadily, averaging $68 per barrel for the year, compared with $39/b in 2020. WTI prices continued to increase in 2022, averaging more than $100 per barrel in the first half of the year. The number of oil-directed rigs in the region has also been generally rising since the 2020 lows, but the rig count is still 15% below January 31, 2020, pre-pandemic count of 406 rigs.
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