伍德麦肯兹：石油和天然气能源转型的不同策略

据美国钻井网站报道，全球著名能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹9月23日表示，即使在最激进的能源转型情景下，全球未来也将需要石油和天然气，直到2050年。

伍德麦肯兹称，油气公司有机会也有责任促进能源转型。越来越明显的是，如果油气公司想维持自己的社会许可，就必须迎接挑战。利用竞争优势，同时随着能源转型进程保持足够的灵活性的油气公司将是最成功的公司。

首先，石油和天然气公司必须能够管理和减少他们的碳排放。一个好的碳减排战略总是从测量和设定碳排放目标开始。 

伍德麦肯兹碳管理、基础设施和企业服务主管雷切尔·谢布尔表示，在伍德麦肯兹服务涵盖的油气公司中，约65%的公司都有范围1（直接）和范围2（从能源供应到运营的间接）排放净零目标。  

2050年范围1和范围2的净零排放是现在的行业标准。大多数油气公司面临的挑战将是加快脱碳进程。

石油工业碳排放的最大来源是范围3——供应链或服务链中的间接排放，包括石油和天然气产品的燃烧。这样的碳排放往往在油气公司的控制范围之外。全球只有10家油气公司制定了涵盖范围3的净零排放目标，其中包括欧洲的大型石油公司和少数独立油气公司。 

伍德麦肯兹说，“最初的脱碳步骤集中在石油和天然气行业可以控制的范围1的减排，如减少伴生气放空燃烧和提高运营效率。例如，在美国大陆，大部分范围1排放来自逃逸的甲烷。油气公司已经在更换甲烷排放的最大来源——大排量气动装置方面取得了重大进展，并有望在本十年中期前将这类排放降低到可以忽略不计的水平。消除范围1排放是油气行业维持信誉和社会运营许可的必要条件。”

据谢布尔所说，绿色能源的电气化将在降低范围2排放方面发挥重要作用。挪威在利用绿色能源实现电气化方面处于世界领先地位，海上风能正逐渐成为陆上能源的替代品。

另一方面，范围3的排放量占油气公司总排放量的80% - 95%，是“房间里的大象”。最简单的范围3排放削减策略是减少对石油和天然气的需求，这并不在石油和天然气部门控制范围内。 

减少范围3的排放需要对行业结构进行较大的调整，因为油气公司几乎没有什么手段可以施展。它们可以减少生产、精炼或产品销售，使用碳补偿（在不断变化的标准下可能有上限），或者实施低碳项目。

油气行业正面临越来越大的压力。利益相关者和监管机构都在推动披露范围3的排放。银行和投资者正试图了解范围3排放将对他们的贷款和投资带来的风险。

碳捕获和储存（CCS）目前在全球仍是一个非常小的领域；伍德麦肯兹估计，到2050年前，全球CCS能力需要增加100多倍。去年北美的CCS项目已占到全球发电能力的三分之二以上，美国《通货膨胀削减法案》的通过对CCS和直接空气捕获都有促进作用。

在美国，那些专注于提高原油采收率（EOR）的遗留项目的运营商在CCS方面具有战略优势。例如，西方石油公司和丹伯里资源公司在美国拥有广泛的提高原油采收率业务，这为它们提供了竞争优势和快速转向新业务模式的机会。西方石油公司也是DAC领域的新兴领导者。该公司正在与合作伙伴一道，在二叠纪盆地建设一个设施，每年可捕获50万吨二氧化碳。  

与石油相比，天然气的碳足迹更低，它将成为通向低碳未来的桥梁。我们已经看到石油和天然气公司转向天然气项目，一些公司将他们的天然气战略与新兴的氢气机会联系起来。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Diverse Strategies For Oil And Gas Energy Transition

Even under the most aggressive energy transition scenario, the world will need oil and gas until 2050, Wood Mackenzie said.

Woodmac claims that oil and gas companies have an opportunity and responsibility to facilitate the energy transition. It’s becoming increasingly clear that they must rise to the challenge if they are to maintain their social license to operate. Companies that capitalize on their competitive advantages while maintaining sufficient flexibility to change as the energy transition progresses will be the most successful.

For starters, oil and gas companies must be able to manage and minimize their emissions. A good emissions reduction strategy will always start with measuring and setting emission targets.

Rachel Schelble, Head of Corporate Carbon Management, Infrastructure, Corporate Service at Woodmac, said that around 65 percent of the companies covered under Wood Mackenzie’s Corporate Service have net-zero targets for Scope 1 (direct) and Scope 2 (indirect from energy supply to operations) emissions.

Scope 1 and Scope 2 net-zero in 2050 is now the industry standard. The challenge for most companies will be to accelerate the decarbonization drive.

The largest source of oil industry emissions are Scope 3 – indirect emissions in the supply or services chains that include the combustion of oil and gas products. Such emissions are often outside the oil and gas companies’ control. only 10 companies globally have net-zero targets that encompass Scope 3 – these include the European majors and a small group of independent oil and gas companies.

“Initial decarbonization steps have focused on those Scope 1 emission reductions that the oil and gas industry can control, such as reducing flaring and incorporating operational efficiencies. For example, in the US Lower 48, most Scope 1 emissions come from fugitive methane. Companies have made significant progress replacing high-bleed pneumatic devices, the largest source of methane emissions, and are on track to reduce such emissions to negligible levels by mid-decade. Eliminating Scope 1 emissions is a must for the sector to maintain its credibility and social license to operate,” Schelble said.

According to her, electrification from green power sources will play a big role in driving down Scope 2 emissions. Norway is leading the world in electrification from green power, with offshore wind gaining traction as an alternative to onshore power.

On the other hand, Scope 3 emissions make up 80% to 95% of total emissions for oil and gas companies and the ‘elephant in the room’ of emissions. The simplest Scope 3 abatement strategy is to cut demand for oil and gas, which is not within the control of the oil and gas sector.

Reducing Scope 3 emissions will require large structural changes for the industry, because there are few levers that oil and gas companies can pull. They can reduce their production, refining or product sales, use carbon offsets, which are likely to have a cap under evolving standards, or pursue low-carbon projects.

And the industry is under increasing pressure. Both stakeholders and regulators are pushing for the disclosure of Scope 3 emissions. Banks and investors are trying to understand the risk that Scope 3 emissions will have on their lending and investments.

CCS is still a very small industry globally; WoodMac estimates that capacity needs to increase more than 100-fold by 2050. Projects in North America have accounted for over two-thirds of global capacity in 2022 and the passage of the US Inflation Reduction Act is a boost to both CCS and direct air capture. 

In the US, operators with legacy projects focused on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) have a strategic advantage in CCS. Oxy and Denbury, for example, have extensive EOR footprints in the US, providing them with a competitive advantage and a quick pivot to a new business model. Oxy is also an emerging leader in DAC. Along with partners, it’s building a facility in the Permian Basin that will capture 500,000 tons of CO2 per year.

Compared with oil, gas has a lower carbon footprint and will act as a bridge to a lower-carbon future. We’re already seeing oil and gas companies pivot to gas projects, with some linking their gas strategies with emerging hydrogen opportunities.