能源行业收益将放缓 但油服行业盈利依然强劲

著名债券评级公司穆迪公司表示：能源行业在2023年仍将表现强劲，但收益不会像2022年那么好  

穆迪公司 ：能源价格在2023年之前预计将保持强劲的周期性走势  

穆迪公司分析师尤其看涨

油田服务行业的前景

据油价网报道，今年，能源行业利润丰厚，石油巨头利润屡创新高。埃克森美孚公司、雪佛龙公司和壳牌公司在第二季度总共获得了460亿美元的收益，3家公司都创下了季度收益的历史新纪录。总体而言，大宗商品价格高企在很大程度上要感谢石油和天然气公司的丰厚利润。

现在，能源专家表示，这场狂欢宴将在2023年继续，只是不会那么疯狂。在穆迪公司最近的一份研究报告中，分析师们表示，他们已将全球能源行业的前景展望从正面调整为稳定。  

根据穆迪公司的研究报告，2023年能源行业收益将总体稳定，但仍将低于最近达到的峰值水平。分析人士指出，大宗商品价格已经从今年早些时候高企水平下降，但他们预测，大宗商品价格很可能在2023年之前保持周期性强劲。再加上油气产量的适度增长，将为油气生产商带来强劲的现金流。 

穆迪公司估计，美国能源行业今年的息税折旧摊销前利润将达到6230亿美元，但到2023年将降至5850亿美元。然而，分析师们表示，低资本支出、未来供应扩大的不确定性上升以及地缘政治风险溢价高企，将继续支撑周期性高油价。与此同时，对美国液化天然气的强劲出口需求将继续支撑高企的天然气价格。

看涨OFS 

报告中特别突出的一点是，分析师看涨油田服务（OFS）行业。

分析师写道：“随着钻井和完井活动的一些增长，对OFS的需求不断上升，这将继续提高OFS公司的定价能力，并将支持OFS公司的盈利实质性增长。”  

尽管在产能方面财经纪律仍将是游戏的主题，但穆迪公司表示，明年定价权将继续增强，“使OFS公司得以扩大利润率，即使劳动力和材料成本出现通胀”。 

穆迪公司还预计，陆上和海上钻机日费率的提高，以及客户续签合同后未来日费率的提高，都将提高OFS公司服务利润率。

报告显示，自今年1月以来，美国在用钻机数增加了大约30%，并恢复到了2020年1月水平的95%左右。

OFS公司报告称，钻井和完井活动以及价格都在上升，而钻井工人也表示他们看到了工作机会的增加。油田工人是2020年受疫情影响最严重的人群之一。根据全球咨询公司德勤会计师事务所公布的数据，在美国全国范围内，石油和天然气行业估计失去了10.7万个工作岗位，其中估计有20万名钻井工人在全球因疫情大流行而实施封锁的高峰期失去了工作。  

以下是一些值得你关注的OFS公司 

• 哈里伯顿公司

市值：251亿美元

今年迄今回报率：15.8%

总部位于得克萨斯州的哈里伯顿公司是全球最大的OFS公司之一，为全球能源行业提供产品和服务，包括完井钻井和评价服务。

哈里伯顿公司通过其旗下兰德马克软件和服务产品线，为上游石油公司提供勘探、钻井、生产软件和数据管理服务等多种生产解决方案。此外，哈利伯顿公司的测试、水下和项目管理产品线专门从事油藏优化和相关技术。泰国PTT勘探与生产公司和科威特石油公司都是著名的油气公司，他们与哈里伯顿公司签订了实施数字化转型、提高油田效率和油气产量的合同。  

哈利伯顿公司的分析师平均推荐为“强力买入”，目标股价为31.84美元，有望上涨15%。 

• NOV公司  

市值：65亿美元  

今年迄今回报率：16.3%  

总部位于美国得克萨斯州的NOV公司是全球领先的石油和天然气钻井、生产作业、油田服务和上游石油和天然气行业供应链集成服务设备和组件供应商。NOV公司的前身是美国跨国公司国民油井华高公司。 

由于资产估值和供应链方面的担忧，华尔街最近一直对NOV公司感到失望。 

美国银行将NOV公司的股票评级从买入下调至减持，目标价22美元(上涨31.2%)。 

美国银行的蔡斯·穆维希尔写道：“地缘政治冲突只会让全球供应链变得更收紧，这可能会推迟利润率复苏的故事，而利润率复苏是我们看涨论点的核心。我们不能百分百确信，事态发展不会让一家已经在供应链和材料成本通胀中苦苦挣扎的公司，在采购铝、铜、镍和钢铁等原材料时变得更加困难。”

• 精密钻井公司  

市值：8.372亿美元  

今年迄今回报率：61.6%  

精密钻井公司是一家总部位于加拿大的钻井承包市场领导者，主要为加拿大、美国和一些国际石油和天然气勘探和生产公司提供合同钻井、完井和生产服务。  

随着钻井活动的增加，蒙特利尔银行资本市场已经升级了一些加拿大OFS公司，包括精密钻井公司、CES能源解决方案公司、Pason系统公司和安全能源服务公司。

蒙特利尔银行资本市场分析师约翰·吉布森在一份致客户的报告中写道：“我们认为，OFS行业的活跃水平即将持续多年，而定价能力将继续走高。”

吉布森表示，Precision、CES和Pason在北美的市场份额都很高，活动水平不断上升，产生自由现金流的能力也很强。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Energy Earnings Set To Ease, But Oilfield Services Remain Strong

·     Moody’s: energy sector remains a strong performer in 2023, but earnings won’t be as good as in 2022.

·     Moody’s: Energy prices are expected to remain cyclically strong through 2023.

·     Moody’s analysts are especially bullish about the prospects of the oilfield services sector

The energy sector has enjoyed bumper profits in the current year, with Big Oil companies setting records right, left and center. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) together brought in $46 billion in earnings in the second quarter, with all three setting new records for quarterly earnings. Overall, high commodity prices have been largely to thank for the fat earnings by oil and gas companies.

And now energy experts are saying the party is set to continue in 2023, only that it won’t be nearly as wild. In a recent Moody's research report, analysts say they have changed their outlook for the Global Energy sector to stable from positive. 

According to the report, industry earnings will stabilize overall in 2023, but remain below levels reached by recent peaks. The analysts note that commodity prices have declined from very high levels earlier in 2022, but have predicted that prices are likely to remain cyclically strong through 2023. This, combined with modest growth in volumes, will support strong cash flow generation for oil and gas producers.

Moody’s estimates that the U.S. energy sector’s EBITDA for 2022 will clock in at $$623B but fall to $585B in 2023. The analysts say that low capex, rising uncertainty about the expansion of future supplies and high geopolitical risk premium will, however, continue to support cyclically high oil prices. Meanwhile, strong export demand for U.S. LNG will continue supporting high natural gas prices.

Bullish On OFS

One particular standout from that report is how bullish the analysts are about the Oil Field Services (OFS) sector.

“Rising demand for oilfield services (OFS) amid some growth in drilling and completion activity will continue to boost pricing power and will support material growth in earnings for OFS companies,” the analysts wrote.

While discipline will still be the name of the game with regard to capacity, Moodys says pricing power will continue to strengthen next year, “allowing OFS companies to expand profit margins, even with labor and materials cost inflation”. 

Moodys also expects improved profit margins for OFS from increasing day rates for onshore and offshore rigs, as well as higher future rates as customers renew contracts. 

U.S. rigs are up by some 30% since January, and recovering to around 95% of their January 2020 levels, according to the report. 

OFS companies have been reporting that drilling and well completions activity as well as pricing have been edging higher, while roughnecks are also saying they are seeing an increase in job offers. Oilfield workers were some of the hardest hit demographic by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Nationally, the oil and gas industry is estimated to have lost 107,000 jobs as per global consulting firm Deloitte, with an estimated 200,000 roughnecks losing their jobs at the height of the global lockdowns. 

Here are some OFS stocks to keep on your radar.

·     Halliburton Co

Market Cap: $25.1B

YTD Returns: 15.8%

One of the largest oil field services companies, Texas-based Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) provides products and services to the energy industry worldwide including well completion drilling and evaluation services.

Halliburton provides diverse production solutions in exploration, drilling, production software and data management services to upstream oil companies through its Landmark Software and Services product line. Further, the company’s Testing & Subsea and Project Management product line specializes in reservoir optimization and associated technologies. Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production and Kuwait Oil Company are among the notable oil and gas companies that awarded Halliburton contracts to implement digital transformation and enhance efficiency and production at their oilfields.

Fortunately, HAL is not as heavily exposed to the Russian market, with JPMorgan estimating that it gets only 2% of its revenue from the country.

HAL has an average analyst recommendation of Strong Buy with a $31.84 price target, good for 15% upside.

·     Nov Inc.

Market Cap: $6.5B

YTD Returns: 16.3%

Texas-based NOV Inc. (NYSE: NOV) is a leading worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. NOV was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco.

Wall Street has been souring on NOV lately, thanks to valuation and supply chain concerns.

Bank of America has issued a double downgrade for NOV shares to Underperform from Buy with a $22 price target (31.2% upside).

"It is only going to create a tighter global supply chain that could delay the margin recovery story that was core to our bull thesis. We are not 100% confident that the war developments don't make sourcing materials like aluminum, copper, nickel and steel more problematic for a company that was already struggling with its supply chain and material cost inflation," BofA's Chase Mulvehill has written.

·     Precision Drilling Corp.

Market Cap: $837.2M

YTD Returns: 61.6%

Precision Drilling Corporation (NYSE: PDS) is a Canada-based company, which is a provider of contract drilling and completion and production services primarily to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in Canada, the United States and certain international locations.

BMO Capital Markets has dished out upgrades to a number of Canadian oilfield services companies including Precision Drilling Corporation, CES Energy Solutions Corp. (OTCPK: CESDEF), Pason Systems Inc. (OTCPK: PSYTF), and Secure Energy Services Inc. (OTCPK: SECYF) as drilling activity ramps up.

“We believe the sector is on the verge of a multi-year run in activity levels, while pricing continues to trend higher,” John Gibson, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, has written in a note to clients titled “Glory Days Ahead, but Expect Volatility to Continue.”

Gibson says Precision, CES, and Pason each exhibit high market share across North America, leverage to rising activity levels and strong free cash flow generating capabilities.