卡塔尔能源未来5-10年将成为全球最大LNG贸易公司

据海上工程师网2022年10月5日伦敦报道，卡塔尔能源部长兼卡塔尔能源公司首席执行官萨阿德·卡阿比10月5日在伦敦表示，他的公司将在未来5-10年内成为全球最大的液化天然气(LNG)贸易公司，目前这一地位由壳牌公司占据。

在爆发地缘政治冲突之后，欧洲成为这种海运燃料的主要市场，欧洲大量购买LNG以帮助取代过去占欧洲大陆进口近40%的产能大国管道天然气。  

分析人士估计，未来10年，欧洲将需要进口大约2亿吨LNG，才能逐步淘汰产能大国管道天然气。2020年，LNG价格从每百万英热单位不到2美元的创纪录低点升至今年8月的57美元高点。

卡阿比在伦敦举行的能源情报论坛上表示：“我们现在的LNG年交易量约为500万至1000万吨。 在未来5-10年内，我们将成为全球最大的LNG贸易公司。” 

卡阿比说，“我们大约在两年前开始LNG贸易，我想说，卡塔尔能源公司的盈利能力可能是我想象的20倍。” 

卡塔尔已经是世界上最大的LNG出口国，其北部油田扩建项目将提升这一地位，并有助于确保对欧洲的长期天然气供应，因为欧洲大陆正在寻找能够替代产能大国天然气供应的能源来源。 

LNG现货货物价格从两年前的约1500万—2000万美元飙升至1.75亿—2亿美元，从而巩固了少数主要LNG交易商手中的交易。

据估计，壳牌公司和道达尔能源公司的投资组合合计为1.1亿吨，而目前市场估计为4亿吨。  

卡塔尔能源公司的投资组合估计为7000万吨，bp的投资组合估计在3000万吨左右，剩下4家公司占据了超过一半的市场。

世界上最大液化天然气(LNG)项目的卡塔尔北部油田扩建项目包括6条LNG生产线，到2027年前，卡塔尔每年的液化能力将从7700万吨提高到1.26亿吨。  

卡塔尔与道达尔能源公司、壳牌公司、埃克森美孚公司、康菲公司和埃尼公司签署了北部油田扩建项目第一阶段北方油田东区 (NFE)的股权协议。

对于第二阶段北方油田南区(NFS)项目，道达尔能源公司将投资大约15亿美元。 

卡阿比表示，将有3家合作伙伴加入NFS项目，与NFE属于同一组，并补充说，签署仪式即将举行。 

欧洲交易 

卡阿比拒绝就向德国供应LNG的谈判进展置评，双方在合同期限和定价等关键条款上存在分歧。 业内消息人士9月份曾向路透社表示，预计双方将很快达成妥协。

卡阿比表示，通常，在诸如欧洲这样一个“以枢纽为基础的市场”，很难锁定长期天然气协议。在欧洲，LNG的定价一般与天然气的定价密切相关。

卡塔尔更喜欢长期的、通常与油价挂钩的合同，以保持收入稳定，并与亚洲买家签订了15年—20年的长期LNG协议。

卡阿比说：“如果有一个更好的市场，除非有人愿意付出机会损失，否则我就没有动力…… 在以枢纽为基础的市场中，很难有基于枢纽的固定供应。”

交易商估计，卡塔尔的LNG年出口能力约为1060亿立方米，其中包括大约90%-95%的长期合同和5%-10%的现货合同。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

QatarEnergy to Be the Largest LNG Trader Over Next 5-10 years - Minister

QatarEnergy CEO and state minister for energy Saad al-Kaabi said on Wednesday that his company will become the world's largest trader of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the next 5-10 years, a position that is currently held by Shell. 

Following the war, Europe in particular has become a prime market for the seaborne fuel, where massive amounts are being bought to help replace pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40% of the continent's imports.

Analysts estimate Europe will need to import around 200 million tonnes of LNG over the next decade to phase out Russian gas. LNG prices rose from record lows below $2 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2020 to highs of $57 in August.

"We are trading about 5-10 million (tonnes of LNG) now. We will be, in the next 5-10 years, the largest LNG trader in the world by far. This is ours and third-party (volumes)," Kaabi told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. 

"We started about two years ago (with trading)... I would say that the profitability of that venture is probably 20 times what I thought it could be."

Qatar is already the world's top LNG exporter and its North Field expansion project will boost that position and help guarantee long-term supplies of gas to Europe as the continent seeks alternatives to Russian flows.   

The spike in spot LNG cargo prices to $175-$200 million, from around $15-$20 million two years ago, has consolidated trading in the hands of a few major traders. 

Shell and TotalEnergies are estimated to have a combined portfolio of 110 million tonnes of the current estimated market of 400 million tonnes.

QatarEnergy's portfolio is estimated at 70 million tonnes, and BP's is estimated at around 30 million, leaving four players accounting for more than half of the market.

The North Field expansion of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) project includes six LNG trains that will ramp up liquefaction capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 126 mtpa by 2027.

Qatar has signed deals for stakes in the first phase of the expansion project, North Field East (NFE) with TotalEnergies, Shell, Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Eni.

For the second phase, North Field South (NFS), TotalEnergies will invest around $1.5 billion.   

Kaabi said that there will be three partners entering the NFS project, part of the same group as NFE, adding that signing ceremonies will be imminent. 

EUROPEAN DEALS

Kaabi declined to comment on the progress of talks to supply Germany with LNG, which have been fraught with differences over key conditions such as the length of contracts and pricing. Industry sources told Reuters in September the parties were expected to reach a compromise soon. 

Generally, Kaabi said it was difficult to lock in long term gas agreements in a "hub-based market" such as Europe where LNG is priced in general against that of natural gas.

Qatar prefers the long-term, generally oil-indexed contracts for revenue stability, and has long term 15-20 year LNG deals with Asian buyers.   

"There is no incentive for me unless somebody is willing to pay the opportunity loss if there is a market that is better... In hub-based markets it's difficult to have hard-wired supply that is based on that hub."

Traders estimate Qatar's nameplate LNG export capacity of around 106 billion cubic metres includes about 90%-95% long-term contracts and 5%-10% spot contracts.