据油价网2022年9月28日报道，美国达拉斯联邦储备银行周三公布的一项调查结果显示，接受调查的油气行业高管们担心经济衰退和供应短缺，尽管本季度油气企业活动稳健，但这种乐观情绪正在不断减弱。
石油和天然气行业高管们对达拉斯联邦储备银行表示，在不确定性加剧的情况下，经济衰退仍然是一个主要担忧。
“很难说这些相互矛盾的潮流将走向何方。 一方面，我们不知道有没有人注意到，但两年期和十年期国债收益率曲线颠倒了，这意味着经济衰退，”一位高管评论道。
然而，同一位高管指出，尽管长期需求强劲，欧佩克继续表现不佳，“页岩岩芯枯竭”和库存担忧仍然是关键问题。
“页岩可能会在5年内崩溃，美国的产量将迅速下降20%到30%。 21世纪20年代末的油价将是值得关注的问题，”这名高管如是说
当被问及到2024年石油市场大幅收紧的预期时，一位高管指出，市场已经吃紧，这表明现货市场价格并非基于真实的基本面。
“我很难理解为什么现货油价会跌到今天这么低，为什么远期曲线上仍然存在现货溢价。 在我看来，世界石油供应非常短缺，即使在北美钻井和完井活动显著增加(现在趋于稳定)之后，经济合作与发展组织(oecd)的石油库存仍在大幅减少，”这位高管评论道，并补充说欧佩克“有史以来第一次”承认没有任何备用产能。
总得说来，达拉斯联邦储备银行指出，乐观情绪已经减弱。 尽管前景指数连续第9个月为正值，但最新数据亦显示前景不确定性指数下降33点至33.1，整体前景不确定性指数从12.4飙升至35.7。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil Executives: Prices Don’t Reflect Tight Supply
Oil and gas executives polled by the Dallas Fed in a survey released Wednesday fear recession and supply shortages, with optimism waning this quarter despite solid business activity.
Oil and gas executives told the Dallas Fed that recession remains a key concern amid heightened uncertainty.
“It’s tough to tell where these crosscurrents are headed. On one hand, we don’t know if anyone has noticed, but the two-year to 10-year Treasury yield curve is inverted, implying recession,” one executive commented.
However, the same executive noted, while long-term demand is strong and OPEC continues to underperform, “shale core exhaustion” and inventory concerns remain key issues.
“Shale will likely tip over in five years, and U.S. production will be down 20 to 30 percent quickly. When it does—this feels like watching the steam roller scene in Austin Powers. Oil prices in the late 2020s will be something to behold,” the executive concluded.
When asked about expectations of a significant tightening of the oil market by 2024, one executive noted that the market is already tight, suggesting spot market prices are not based on true fundamentals.
“I struggle to understand why spot oil prices are as low as they are today and why there is still backwardation in the forward curve. It appears to me that the world is very short on supply, with big draws in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inventories still taking place even after a significant increase (and now leveling off) in North American drilling and completion activity,” the executive commented, adding that OPEC has “for the first time ever” acknowledged that there is no spare capacity.
Overall, the Dallas Fed noted that optimism has waned. While the outlook index posted its 9th consecutive positive reading, the latest reading also reflects a 33-point fall to 33.1, with the overall outlook uncertainty index surging from 12.4 to 35.7.
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