据美国钻井网站2022年9月26日报道，据一份来自美国亨利中心的最新报告显示，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司上调了亨利中心的天然气价格预测。
报告显示，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司目前预计，今年亨利中心天然气的平均价格为7美元/百万英热单位，明年将为6.50美元/百万英热单位。惠誉解决方案此前的预测显示，今年亨利中心天然气的平均价格为5.85美元/百万英热单位，明年为5.75美元/百万英热单位。
惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司最新的亨利中心天然气价格报告显示，展望未来，到2024年亨利中心天然气的平均价格将为6.00美元/百万英热单位，到2025年为5.70美元/百万英热单位，到2026年为5.45美元/百万英热单位。预测也包括在报告中的彭博共识预计今年亨利中心的天然气平均价格为6.50美元/百万英热单位，2023年为5.90美元/百万英热单位，2024年为4.50美元/百万英热单位，2025年为4.10美元/百万英热单位，2026年为4.30美元/百万英热单位。
惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司在其最新报告中表示：“随着供暖季节的临近，住宅和商业用户对天然气的需求增强，我们预计在今年剩余时间里天然气价格将保持在高位。”
惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司在报告中补充说：“低于平均储存水平和主要进口国对天然气的强劲需求，特别是面临来自产能大国天然气供应有限的欧洲国家，将支撑欧洲主要液化天然气（LNG）供应商美国的天然气价格水平上升。”
惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司在报告中指出，明年亨利中心的天然气价格前景更加复杂。
该公司在报告中表示：“尽管我们预计看涨因素将超过看跌因素，使亨利中心的天然气价格保持在历史平均水平之上，但我们现在预计明年亨利中心的天然气价格将比我们之前的预测出现更大的下降。”
“一方面，我们预计天然气价格将继续上涨，主要是由于强劲的国内需求、出口需求和增加的出口能力，因为美国自由港LNG项目前预计将在今年11月下旬恢复85%的产能，并在2023年3月全面投产。与此同时，我们目前预计经济增长疲软可能会拖累天然气需求，导致天然气价格走低。”
根据9月7日发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告，美国能源信息署(EIA)目前预测，今年亨利中心的天然气现货价格平均将为7.37美元/百万英热单位，明年将为6.01美元/百万英热单位。EIA在8月份发布的之前的STEO报告显示，今年亨利中心的天然气现货价格平均为6.80美元/百万英热单位，明年平均为5.10美元/百万英热单位。
在日前发给美国钻井网站的一份市场报告中，Rystad能源分析师Ade Allen表示，国内天然气供需平衡使亨利中心的天然气价格在冬季的波动加剧，“随着季节结束的临近，市场难以在上行和下行催化剂之间找到平衡”。
在撰写本文时，亨利中心的天然气价格为6.63美元/百万英热单位。截至目前，该大宗商品今年的峰值收盘价格为8月22日的9.68美元/百万英热单位，截至目前的最低收盘价格为1月4日的3.71美元/百万英热单位。亨利中心的天然气价格在过去几个月里出现了反弹，在6月份收盘时价格超过了9美元/百万英热单位，之后在同月下降到了5.5美元/百万英热单位以下，8月份再次上升到9美元/百万英热单位以上，9月份又下降到了7美元/百万英热单位以下。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Raises Henry Hub Gas Price Forecast|
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has raised its Henry Hub price forecast, a new report from the company, which was sent to Rigzone, has revealed.
The company now sees the Henry Hub gas price averaging $7.00 per MMBtu in 2022 and $6.50 per MMBtu in 2023, the report showed. Fitch Solutions’ previous forecast saw the commodity averaging $5.85 per MMBtu this year and $5.75 per MMBtu next year, the report highlighted.
Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions projects that the Henry Hub price will average $6.00 per MMBtu in 2024, $5.70 per MMBtu in 2025, and $5.45 per MMBtu in 2026, the company’s latest Henry Hub price report revealed. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also included in the report, sees the Henry Hub price averaging $6.50 per MMBtu in 2022, $5.90 per MMBtu in 2023, $4.50 per MMBtu in 2024, $4.10 per MMBtu in 2025, and $4.30 per MMBtu in 2026.
“We expect prices to remain elevated over the remainder of 2022 on the back of strengthening demand for natural gas from the residential and commercial users as the heating season approaches,” Fitch Solutions stated in its latest report.
“Below-average storage levels and strong demand for gas from key importers, in particular European countries facing limited gas supplies from the larger producer, are set to support elevated natural gas price levels in the U.S., a key LNG supplier to Europe,” the company added in the report.
The 2023 price outlook is more mixed, Fitch Solutions noted in the report.
“Although we expect bullish factors to outweigh bearish ones, keeping Henry Hub prices above historical averages, we now expect the 2023 prices to see a steeper decline from 2022 levels than in our previous forecast,” the company stated in the report.
“On the one hand, we expect prices to remain elevated mainly on the back of strong demand export demand and increased export capacity as Freeport LNG is now expected to return 85 percent of production capacity by late November 2022 and become fully operational in March 2023. At the same time, we currently expect weakening economic growth which will likely weigh on natural gas demand and see prices trading lower,” Fitch Solutions added.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is currently forecasting that the Henry Hub spot price will average $7.37 per MMBtu in 2022 and $6.01 per MMBtu in 2023, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 7. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in August, saw the Henry Hub spot price averaging $6.80 per MMBtu this year and $5.10 per MMBtu next year.
In a market note sent to Rigzone last week, Rystad Energy Analyst Ade Allen stated that domestic gas balances are setting Henry Hub prices for increased volatility heading into winter “as the market struggles to find equilibrium between upside and downside catalysts as end of season draws near”.
At the time of writing, the Henry Hub price is trading at $6.63 per MMBtu. The commodity’s peak 2022 close, so far, was seen on August 22 at $9.68 per MMBtu and its lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 4 at $3.71 per MMBtu. The Henry Hub price has bounced up and down over the last few months, closing above $9 per MMBtu in June before dropping to under $5.5 per MMBtu during the same month, rising to above $9 per MMBtu again in August and dropping to under $7 per MMBtu in September.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬科技创新精神，传递更多科技创新信息，宣传国家科技政策，展示国家科技形象，增强国家科技软实力，参与国际科技舆论竞争，提高国际科技话语权，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以崇高敬意。如果您认为本网文章及图片侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
