全球石油备用产能极低状况将保持油价高企

持续的供给侧冲击使油价居高不下 

尽管经济增速即将放缓，但全球石油需求依然强劲  

多年来最低的备用产能缓冲支撑了油价，并将继续成为市场的看涨因素

据油价网9月24日报道，疫情后经济和石油需求的反弹，使全球备用石油产能处于非常低的水平，在短期内吸收可能出现的供应方面冲击的缓冲空间非常小。尽管世界上许多地区的经济已经开始放缓，欧洲和美国也担心会出现衰退，但油价还没有跌到每桶90美元以下。对供应中断的担忧和对衰退可能减缓石油需求增长的担忧一样加剧。  

多年来最低的备用产能缓冲支撑着油价，并将继续成为市场的利好因素，至少在短期内是如此，因为没有预测者或分析师能够确定，在欧盟对产能大国海上原油进口禁令生效后的短短三个月内，全球石油供应将损失多少。 

当然，有一种方法肯定能让世界看到备用产能的增加和石油库存从多年来的低点恢复到更舒适的水平——那就是经济衰退。路透社高级市场分析师约翰·肯普指出，要使全球石油库存达到5年平均水平，就需要全球经济活动严重放缓或彻底衰退。

目前看来，经济衰退是重建全球石油库存的唯一途径。  

在供应方面，欧佩克+和美国都无法在短期内实质性提高石油供应。据估计，欧佩克+目前的石油日产量比其目标产量低360万桶。此外，全球备用产能仅掌握在两个欧佩克产油大国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的手中。沙特近日表示，全球经济的下一次反弹将耗尽备用产能。  

沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）首席执行官阿敏·纳赛尔日前表示：“全球石油库存很低，目前全球有效备用产能约为全球需求的1.5%。”

纳赛尔说，“但当全球经济复苏时，我们可以预期全球石油需求将进一步反弹，这将消除少量的备用石油产能。当世界意识到这些盲点时，改变方向可能已经太晚了。”纳赛尔再次警告称，多年来对石油和天然气的投资不足导致了目前的极低备用产能和市场紧张。

与此同时，美国石油业高管说，今年冬天美国无法为欧洲提供援助，因为美国的石油和天然气生产商无法大幅提高目前的油气产量，以抵消欧盟禁运生效后石油供应预计将出现的下降。

所有这些都让需求方需要重新平衡市场。如果出现严重经济衰退，全球石油需求增长将明显放缓，甚至需求将大幅下降，那么备用产能和库存可能会从多年低点回升。

世界银行日前表示，由于各国央行大举加息以抑制通胀，2023年全球经济可能会陷入衰退。就在不久前，美联储将关键利率连续第三次上调75个基点，英国央行将利率上调50个基点至2.25%，为2008年金融危机爆发以来的最高利率上调。

尽管主要经济体果断收紧货币政策，但欧佩克和国际能源署(IEA)都认为，在2022年和2023年，全球每年石油需求量将继续增长。尽管经济环境恶化，以及由于疫情影响对需求的担忧，但国际能源署仍然预计，今年世界石油日需求量将增加200万桶，明年将再增加210万桶。欧佩克的最新预测显示，该组织仍预计今年全球经济增长将保持在3.1%的强劲水平，明年全球经济将继续增长3.1%。这表明，尽管市场担心经济衰退，欧佩克仍预计全球石油需求将健康增长。

此外，分析师和预测人士表示，今年冬季油气转换和石油产品市场吃紧(尤其是欧洲的柴油市场)也可能支持石油需求，即使是在经济轻度衰退的环境下。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Razor-Thin Spare Capacity To Keep Oil Prices Elevated

·     ongoing supply-side shocks are keeping oil prices elevated.

·     Despite looming economic slowdowns, oil demand has remained strong.

·     The thinnest spare capacity cushion in years is supportive of oil prices and will continue to be a bullish factor on the market.

The post-COVID rebound in economies and oil demand have left global spare oil production capacity at very low levels with a very small cushion to absorb possible supply-side shocks in the near term. Despite the economic slowdown already underway in many parts of the world and fears of recessions in Europe and the United States, oil prices haven’t fallen too far below $90 per barrel. Fears of supply disruptions have increased as much as fears of recessions that could slow oil demand growth.

The thinnest spare capacity cushion in years is supportive of oil prices and will continue to be a bullish factor on the market, at least in the short term, considering that no forecaster or analyst can be certain how much global oil supply will be lost in just three months when the EU embargo on Russian oil imports by sea enters into force.

Certainly, there is one sure-fire way for the world to see rising spare capacity and oil inventories rebuilding from multi-year lows to more comfortable levels—recession. A serious slowdown in economic activity or an outright recession would be needed to bring global oil stocks up to five-year average levels, as Reuters’ senior market analyst John Kemp notes.

And right now, it looks like a recession is the only way to rebuild global oil inventories.

On the supply side, neither OPEC+ nor the U.S. can materially boost supply in the short term. OPEC+ is estimated to be a massive 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) below its targeted oil production. Moreover, global spare capacity is in the hands of just two OPEC producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Saudis themselves admitted this week that the next rebound in economies would wipe out the spare capacity.  

“Oil inventories are low, and effective global spare capacity is now about one and a half percent of global demand,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser said this week.

“But when the global economy recovers, we can expect demand to rebound further, eliminating the little spare oil production capacity out there. And by the time the world wakes up to these blind spots, it may be too late to change course,” he added, reiterating the warning that years of underinvestment in oil and gas have brought about the current low spare capacity and tight markets.

At the same time, American oil executives say that the U.S. cannot come to the rescue for Europe this winter as oil and gas producers can’t ramp up current production levels too much to offset an expected drop in Russian oil supply when the EU embargo enters into force.

All this leaves the demand side to rebalance the market. If a severe recession with significantly slower oil demand growth or even a demand drop materializes, spare capacity and inventories could rise from multi-year lows.

A recession may be coming for the world in 2023 as central banks aggressively hike interest rates to tame inflation, the World Bank said last week. Just this week, the Fed raised the key rate by another 75 basis points for a third consecutive time, and the Bank of England raised rates by 50 basis points to 2.25%, the highest rate since the start of the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite the decisively tightening monetary policy in major economies, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) continue to see global oil demand growing annually both in 2022 and 2023. Despite the deteriorating economic environment and concerns over demand due to COVID lockdowns, the IEA expects world oil demand to grow by 2 million bpd in 2022 and by another 2.1 million bpd next year. OPEC, for its part, still sees global economic growth staying robust at 3.1% this year and another 3.1% next year in its latest forecast, suggesting that the cartel still expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession.

Moreover, analysts and forecasters say that gas to oil switching this winter and tight product markets—especially diesel in Europe—could also support oil demand even in a mildly recessionary environment.