美国天然气市场大起大落走势远未结束

据美国钻井网站2022年9月21日报道，说“美国天然气市场经历了旋风式的一年”是一种轻描淡写的说法，但随着冬季的到来，美国天然气市场大起大落的走势仍远未结束。

这是挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）分析师阿德·艾伦在周二发给美国钻井网站的一份市场报告中所述，他补充说，预计高气价将持续一段时间。

艾伦在报告中表示：“市场参与者被迫调整策略，以应对不断上升的需求、地缘政治复杂性和供应瓶颈。”

艾伦补充道，美国向欧洲出口液化天然气（LNG）的重要性正在进一步增加，这是目前困扰欧洲天然气短缺的唯一直接解决方案之一。 然而，由于干气供应未能达到预期，今年上半年天然气供应出现了一些严重的阻力。

艾伦继续说：“供应链瓶颈和资本约束的运营商一直是供应显著增长的主要抑制因素，但干气供应正在出现上升。”

艾伦强调，即使增加天然气产量也不太可能抑制天然气价格，因为钻井公司难以满足日益飙升的国内外需求。

艾伦在报告中称：“此外，天然气库存水平远低于5年平均水平，尽管冬季即将来临，但库存水平几乎没有回升的迹象。” 

“市场参与者正试图确定，这种上涨是对价格的短期反应还是由于下半年支出增加而导致的结构性增长。我们的分析指向后者，因为我们预计未来两年的中期增长率为8.25%。”艾伦在报告中如是说。

这名Rystad的资深分析师还在报告中指出，“闷热”的夏季将电力消耗推至前所未有的水平，并强调美国自由港LNG终端爆炸“立即改变了市场动态，使总需求每天减少20亿立方英尺”。 

“亨利中心的天然气价格在10美元/百万英热单位的悬崖上是短暂的，并立即下跌。”艾伦说。  

艾伦补充说：“然而，随着创纪录的温度持续存在，这种说法意味着创纪录的燃气发电量可能会为整体需求图景带来一些提振。” 

艾伦在报告中警告称，冬季天然气短缺的幽灵正笼罩着市场，并补充称，定价结果的巨大差异正变得越来越大。

艾伦说：“高气价预计还会持续一段时间，季末热带风暴或飓风的威胁以及严冬的风险可能会引发更高的气价。”

在撰写本文时，亨利中心天然气的交易价格为每百万英热单位7.90美元。到目前为止，今年这种大宗商品的最高收盘价为8月22日的9.68美元。到目前为止，其今年最低收盘价为1月4日的3.71美元。从6月到9月，亨利中心的天然气价格上下波动犹如坐过山车，7月一度跌至5.51美元，8月达到今年最高收盘价9.68美元。 

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

USA Gas Market Rollercoaster Ride Far from Over

It’s an understatement to say that U.S. gas markets have had a whirlwind year, but the rollercoaster ride is far from over as winter beckons. 

That’s what Rystad Energy Analyst Ade Allen said in a market note sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, adding that high gas prices are expected to stick around for a while.

“Market participants have been forced to adapt their strategies in response to rising demand, geopolitical complications and supply bottlenecks,” Allen stated in the note.

“The importance of U.S. LNG exports to Europe is increasing further as one of the only immediate solutions to the gas shortage currently gripping Europe. However, the first half of the year presented some significant headwinds as dry gas supply failed to meet expectations,” Allen added.

“Supply chain bottlenecks and capital-disciplined operators have served as the primary inhibitors of significant supply growth, but an uptick in dry gas supply is emerging,” Allen continued.

Even increased production is unlikely to temper prices though as drillers struggle to keep up with soaring domestic and international demand, Allen highlighted.

“Further, storage levels are far below the five-year average and have shown little sign of making up ground despite winter on the horizon,” Allen said in the note.

“Market participants are trying to decide if the gains are a result of short-term responsiveness to price or whether the growth is structural due to increased spending in the second half of the year. Our analysis points to the latter as we expect medium-term growth of 8.25 percent over the next two years,” Allen added.

The Rystad analyst also outlined in the note that a “sweltering” summer pushed power burns to previously unseen levels and highlighted that the Freeport LNG explosion “immediately changed the market dynamics by reducing overall demand by two billion cubic feet per day”.

“Henry Hub prices on the precipice of $10/MMBtu were short-lived and cratered immediately,” Allen said.

“However, as record temperatures lingered, the narrative implied that record gas-for-power generation could create some buoyancy for the overall demand picture,” Allen added.

In the note, Allen warned that the specter of winter is looming over the market and added that the large disparity of pricing outcomes is becoming more divergent.

“High gas prices are expected to stick around for a while, with the threat of a late-season tropical storm or hurricane and the risk of a severe winter potentially triggering an even higher price situation,” Allen said.

At the time of writing, the price of Henry Hub gas is trading at $7.90. The commodity’s highest 2022 close, so far, was seen on August 22 at $9.68. Its lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 4 at $3.71. From June to September, the Henry Hub price has bounced up and down, dropping as low as $5.51 in July before seeing its highest close of the year in August.