据美国钻井网站2022年9月22日报道，全球领先的商业情报公司伍德麦肯兹公司（WM）认为，天然气和液化天然气（LNG）将在2050年前实现全球气温上升1.5摄氏度的目标方面发挥重要作用，但由此产生的市场可能面目全非。
加速能源转型情景(AET-1.5)探索了一条路径，即到本世纪末，全球气温自前工业化时代以来的升幅控制在1.5摄氏度以内，到2050年前达到全球净零排放。根据AET-1.5，除天然气外，其他碳氢化合物需求将迅速下降。
虽然脱碳措施无疑会给最终用途能源需求带来压力，但天然气仍可发挥关键作用。煤炭的逐步淘汰支持了天然气的使用，同时天然气作为蓝色氢气的原料的需求也在不断增长。而且，至关重要的是，随着电气化和可再生能源的普及，天然气与碳捕获和储存（CCS）相结合可以成为灵活和可调度发电的来源——即使电池技术正在进步。
然而，伍德麦克公司认为，只有CCS技术得到改进，才能找到一种高效、低成本的减少二氧化碳排放的方法。
由于欧洲从产能大国天然气转向，短期内仍需要天然气和液化天然气投资。地缘政治冲突引发了全球天然气市场的巨大变化——其中很大一部分是不可逆转的。 欧洲对LNG的需求尤其飙升。
然而，大量已经开始并可能持续到明年的最终投资决定（FID）将迅速填补这一空间。在去年批准5000万吨/年的新产能后，FID的势头仍在继续。到目前为止，今年1300万吨/年的普拉克明项目的第一阶段和两个快速LNG项目已经获得批准。
今年晚些时候，在美国，伍德麦肯兹公司预计普拉克明项目的第二阶段和切尼尔能源公司的科珀斯克里斯蒂项目第三阶段将紧随其后投产。在AET-1.5情景下，这些新投产项目加上卡塔尔的持续扩张LNG产能，从而增加了21世纪20年代末或30年代初供应过剩的风险。此后，随着亚洲需求继续增长，但将受到天然气需求长期下降的限制，机会之窗将再次打开。
长期来看，如果全球气温上升1.5摄氏度，天然气需求下降是不可避免的。随着氢、氨等绿色脱碳商品的大规模进入，市场竞争将更加激烈和充满活力。
价格下跌和需求不确定性将不可避免地影响对大型固定基础设施项目的数十亿美元投资，比如新的大型国际管道。低油价还将挑战高成本非常规油气上游开发的经济效益，降低进一步勘探的意愿。由于市场收缩速度相比资产利用时间更快， 现有的基础设施资产可能得不到充分利用。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网
原文如下：
Gas And LNG Have A Role To Play In Net-Zero World
Gas and LNG have an important role to play in realizing a 1.5-degree scenario by 2050 – but the resulting market could be unrecognizable, Wood Mackenzie believes.
An accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century and reach global net-zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonization measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, Woodmac believes that this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from the larger producer's gas. The war sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs, which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year, will fill up this space quickly. FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity was sanctioned in 2021.
Later this year, in the U.S., Woodmac expects the second phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s or early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5-degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonization, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion-dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilized as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
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