据钻机地带10月7日报道，雷斯塔能源在一份新的市场报告中称，在欧佩克+决定从11月开始削减200万桶/天产量之后，布伦特原油很可能在今年年底达到每桶100美元。
雷斯塔能源高级副总裁豪尔赫·莱昂（Jorge Leon）在报告中表示，我们相信，宣布的该措施将对价格产生重大影响。并补充道，到今年12月，布伦特原油价格将超过100美元/桶，高于我们之前预测的89美元/桶。
Leon在报告中概述，在OPEC+宣布减产后，布伦特原油即月价格达到了94美元/桶，而上周五为88美元/桶。
随着今年2月地缘政治冲突升级，石油价格多年来首次突破每桶100美元。自那以来，油价在2022年多次收于每桶逾120美元，尽管布伦特原油从6月的逾123美元/桶跌至9月底的略高于84美元/桶。在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶95.18美元。
惠誉解决方案公司目前预测，2022年布伦特原油均价将达到105美元/桶，而彭博共识预计布伦特原油均价将达到101.7美元/桶，美国能源情报署最新的短期能源展望预测，2022年布伦特现货均价将达到104.21美元/桶。
有效的减产范围120万桶/天
在雷斯塔的最新市场报告中，Leon强调，雷斯塔认为OPEC+将无法实现全面减产，但有可能实现120万桶/天的有效减产，因为23个成员国中有14个国家目前产量不足，占该组织9月份产量的39%，因此新的配额将不具约束力。
Leon表示，例如，产能大国的产量约为970万桶/天，但他们的新配额为1050万桶/天。
Leon预测，2022年11月预计每天有效减产120万桶，主要由沙特阿拉伯（每天减少52万桶）、伊拉克（每天减少22万桶），阿联酋（每天减少15万桶）和科威特（每天减少13.5万桶）承担。据Leon称，哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚、阿曼、加蓬和南苏丹也将减产。
Leon还指出，OPEC+在其官方新闻稿中概述了两项非产量的政策转变，他表示，这“也将对石油市场产生相当大的影响”。一是《合作宣言》延期至2023年底。在OPEC+所称的全球经济前景“不确定”以及石油市场需要长期指导的情况下，这意味着未来一年油价可能会稳固。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Brent Likely to Hit $100 Per Barrel by Year End
Brent is likely to hit $100 per barrel by the end of the year following OPEC+’s move to cut two million barrels per day from November, a new market note from Rystad Energy has outlined.
“We believe that the price impact of the announced measures will be significant,” Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon said in the note.
“By December this year Brent would reach over $100 per barrel, up from our earlier call for $89 per barrel,” Leon added.
In the note, Leon outlined that ICE Brent Front Month reached $94 per barrel right after the OPEC+ announcement, compared to $88 per barrel last Friday.
Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years as the war in February. It has since closed above $120 per barrel on several occasions in 2022, although Brent dropped from over $123 per barrel in June to just above $84 per barrel at the end of September. At the time of writing, Brent is trading at $95.18 per barrel.
Fitch Solutions is currently forecasting that the Brent crude oil price will average $105 per barrel in 2022, while the Bloomberg Consensus sees Brent averaging $101.7 per barrel this year and the latest short term energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration sees the Brent spot price averaging $104.21 per barrel in 2022.
Scope for 1.2 Million Barrels Per Day
In Rystad’s latest market note, Leon highlighted that Rystad believes that OPEC+ will not be able to deliver on the full headline cut but instead has scope to deliver 1.2 million barrels per day of effective cuts “as 14 out of the 23 member countries, accounting for 39 percent of the group’s production in September, are currently underproducing so that the new quota will not be binding”.
“For example, the larger producer's production is around 9.7 million barrels per day but their new quota is 10.5 million barrels per day,” Leon said.
The estimated 1.2 million barrel per day of effective output cut for November 2022 will be mainly shouldered by Saudi Arabia (-520,000 barrels per day), Iraq (-220,000 barrels per day), the UAE (-150,000 barrels per day) and Kuwait (-135,000 barrels per day), Leon forecasted. Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, Gabon, and South Sudan will also contribute, according to Leon.
Leon also pointed out that OPEC+ outlined two non-volume shifts in policy in its official press release, which he said “will also be quite impactful on the oil market”.
“Firstly, the Declaration of Cooperation was extended until the end of 2023. This adds a year of potential sturdy oil price floor amid what OPEC+ describes as ‘uncertain’ global economic outlook and the need for long-term guidance in the oil market,” Leon said.
“Another important detail is that the 23-member group will only meet every six months, signaling that the new target production level of 40.1 will not be tinkered with on a month-to-month basis,” he added.
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