埃克森美孚可能成为圭亚那石油繁荣的最大赢家

圭亚那正在迅速成为这个星球上最热门的新石油前沿之一  

据估计，圭亚那斯塔布鲁克区块已经发现超过110亿桶的可采石油资源  

埃克森美孚公司正在成为这个新石油热区的最大赢家之一

据油价网报道，贫穷的南美小国圭亚那已成为南美洲最大的石油生产国之一，并有望成为全球主要的能源出口国。自2015年以来，由美国埃克森美孚公司牵头的国际财团在圭亚那近海660万英亩的斯塔布鲁克区块发现了大量高质量石油，最新石油发现在2022年7月宣布。 据估计，这些发现已经在斯塔布鲁克区块发现近110亿桶可采石油资源，未来还将发现更多的石油资源。 

埃克森美孚公司拥有斯塔布鲁克区块45%的股份，美国赫斯公司持有30%的股份。埃克森美孚公司及其合作伙伴正在以闪电般的速度开发斯塔布鲁克区块。位于斯塔布鲁克区块东南部的丽莎大油田目前每天从两艘浮式产油储油卸油船(FPSO)开采出大约36万桶原油。从丽莎大油田采出的原油质量轻，含硫量0.58%，API度为32。这使得开采和提炼变得更容易、更便宜。 这意味着丽莎级原油更便宜、更容易生产，也更容易提炼成高质量的燃料油，与更重、硫含量更高的原油级别相比，尤其是与邻国委内瑞拉生产的原油相比，丽莎级原油的碳足迹更低。 

因此，在圭亚那近海发现和生产的原油对全球能源公司特别有吸引力，全球能源公司面临着巨大的压力，需要大幅减少排放和脱碳。圭亚那海上地区原油预计平均盈亏平衡价格为每桶35美元，这反映了该行业的低成本，使这个极度贫困的国家成为拉丁美洲原油生产成本最低、利润最高的地区之一。 这些因素使得圭亚那近海地区成为业内人士所说的世界上最令人兴奋的石油前沿。这正推动更多外国能源公司投资圭亚那的碳氢化合物行业。 

2020年11月，当布伦特原油价格在每桶45美元左右时，埃克森美孚公司宣布将优先考虑圭亚那、美国二叠纪盆地和巴西的资本支出，因为这些地区具有巨大的潜力。埃克森美孚公司目前对斯塔布鲁克区块的开采将在该公司积极实施脱碳计划中发挥至关重要的作用。此前，埃克森美孚公司因忽视气候变化的危险而受到严厉批评。2021年，埃克森美孚公司宣布，计划到2030年前将其上游业务的温室气体排放减少40%至50%，这在一定程度上是因为这家美国超级能源巨头承诺停止伴生气放空燃烧。 

这些原因促使埃克森美孚公司继续推进斯塔布鲁克区块的开发，并在圭亚那近海拥有股份的其他区块进行勘探活动。在2021年期间，这家美国超级能源巨头计划在2022年至2027年期间投入200亿至250亿美元的资本支出，其中60%的投资将投向圭亚那、巴西、二叠纪盆地及其液化天然气和化工业务。目前，日产22万桶原油的圭亚那帕拉亚项目正在开发中，比计划提前了大约5个月，预计在2023年底前开始生产。埃克森美孚公司还在推进圭亚那的Yellowtail项目，该项目预计将在2025年投产，原油日产能为25万桶。随着帕拉亚和Yellowtail项目的完工，到2025年底，斯塔布鲁克区块的原油日产量将至少达到81万桶，甚至可能更多。 

行业分析师估计，到2027年前，圭亚那的原油日产量将至少达到100万桶，而一些人认为这一数字可能更高，达到120万桶。届时，圭亚那将超过哥伦比亚，成为拉丁美洲和加勒比地区第三大石油生产国。圭亚那-苏里南盆地最近的发现，以及对其碳氢化合物潜力的估计，表明圭亚那和苏里南近海的可采石油资源总和超过180亿桶油当量。这一数字明显高于美国地质调查局2012年估计的136亿桶未发现石油资源的平均值。

由于不断获得新发现，圭亚那的可采石油资源将持续增长。2022年6月，埃克森美孚公司在斯塔布鲁克区块的Banjo-1初探井开钻，截至2022年9月初，钻井活动仍在继续。埃克森美孚公司还在2022年9月开始钻探斯塔布鲁克区块的Sailfin-1井，使其成为今年迄今为止的第9口初探井。由于埃克森美孚公司在圭亚那近海拥有大量潜在钻井目标，该公司计划开发更多的产油井。这家美国综合能源公司宣布今年7月在斯塔布鲁克区块Seabob和Kiru-Kiru井获得了两个重要石油发现，随后该公司开展了最新的油气勘探活动。

这些事态发展表明圭亚那不仅将成为一个主要的石油生产国和出口国，而且有可能积累大量石油储备。甚至有人猜测，根据目前钻探成功的速度，圭亚那的石油储量最终将超过巴西，成为拉丁美洲和加勒比地区仅次于委内瑞拉的第二大石油储量国。埃克森美孚公司及其在斯塔布鲁克区块的合作伙伴时下正处于从圭亚那快速扩张的海上石油繁荣中获利的理想位置。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Exxon May Emerge As The Biggest Winner In Guyana’s Oil Boom

·     Guyana is quickly becoming one of the hottest new oil frontiers on the planet.

·     It is estimated that over 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources have been discovered in the Stabroek Block.

·     Exxon is emerging as one of the biggest winners in this new oil hotspot.

The impoverished tiny South American country of Guyana has emerged as one of the continent’s top oil producers and is poised to become a leading global energy exporter. Since 2015 an Exxon Mobil-led consortium has made a swathe of high-quality oil discoveries in offshore Guyana in the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block, with the latest announced in July 2022. It is estimated those finds have uncovered nearly 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources in the Stabroek Block with further oil discoveries to come. 

Exxon, the operator who owns 45% of the block with Hess holding 30%，is developing the Stabroek Block at a lightning pace. The Liza oilfield, located in the southeast of the block, is currently pumping around 360,000 barrels of crude oil per day from two floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels; Liza Destiny and Liza Unity. The petroleum pumped from the Liza field is light and sweet, with an API gravity of 32 degrees and 0.58% sulfur content. That makes it easier and cheaper to extract as well as refine. This means Liza-grade crude oil is cheaper and easier to produce as well as refine into high-quality fuels, giving it a lower carbon footprint compared to heavier sourer grades, particularly those produced in neighboring Venezuela. 

As a result, the oil discovered and produced in offshore Guyana is particularly attractive to global energy companies, which are under considerable pressure to significantly reduce emissions and decarbonize their operations. Industry low costs, as reflected by offshore Guyana’s forecast average breakeven price of $35 per barrel, make the deeply impoverished country one of the lowest cost and hence most profitable jurisdictions in Latin America. These factors have seen offshore Guyana emerge as what industry insiders are calling the world’s most exciting oil frontier. That is driving even greater investment inflows into Guyana’s hydrocarbon sector from foreign energy companies.

In November 2020, at a time when Brent was selling for around $45 per barrel, Exxon announced it was prioritizing Guyana, along with the Permian Basin and Brazil, for capital spending because of the jurisdiction’s considerable potential. Exxon’s ongoing exploitation of the Stabroek Block will play a vital role in the company’s plans to aggressively decarbonize its operations after being heavily criticized for ignoring the perils of climate change. In 2021, Exxon announced that it intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its upstream operations by between 40% and 50% by 2030, which will in part occur because of the energy supermajor’s commitment to end flaring.

These reasons see Exxon pressing ahead with developing the Stabroek Block and exploration activities in other blocks where it holds a stake in offshore Guyana. During 2021 the energy supermajor announced it intends to spend $20 billion to $25 billion on capital expenditures between 2022 and 2027, with 60% of that investment directed to Guyana, Brazil, the Permian and its LNG as well as chemical businesses. The 220,000 barrel per day Payara project is currently under development with it approximately five months ahead of schedule and slated to commence production before the end of 2023. Exxon is also advancing the Yellowtail project, which is forecast to come online during 2025 with a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day. The completion of Payara and Yellowtail will see Stabroek Block producing at least 810,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, potentially even more. 

Industry analysts estimate that Guyana will be pumping at least one million barrels of crude oil daily by 2027, while some believe that figure could be higher, reaching 1.2 million barrels. When that occurs, Guyana will overtake Colombia to become the third largest oil producer in Latin America and the Caribbean. Recent discoveries in the basin, along with estimates of their hydrocarbon potential, point to the combined recoverable oil resources of offshore Guyana and Suriname being more than 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent. That number is significantly higher than the mean 13.6 billion barrels of undiscovered oil resources estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2012.

Guyana’s recoverable oil resources will keep growing as further discoveries occur. In June 2022, Exxon spudded the Banjo-1 wildcat well in the Stabroek Block and as of early September 2022 drilling activity was continuing. The energy supermajor also started drilling the Sailfin-1 well in the Stabroek Block during September 2022, making it the ninth wildcat well so far this year. Further wells are planned with Exxon holding a large inventory of prospective drilling targets in offshore Guyana. That latest exploration activity comes on the back of the integrated energy company announcing two oil discoveries in the Stabroek Block during July 2022, at the Seabob and Kiru-Kiru wells.

These developments point to Guyana becoming not only a major oil producer and exporter but that it has the potential to amass significant oil reserves. There is even speculation, based on the current rate of drilling success, that eventually Guyana’s oil reserves could overtake Brazil’s, seeing it possess the second largest oil reserves in Latin America and the Caribbean behind Venezuela. Exxon and its partners in the Stabroek Block are ideally placed to profit from Guyana’s rapidly expanding offshore oil boom.