欧洲可再生能源供应链面临不断攀升的成本

据油价网2022年10月5日报道，由于太阳能光伏设备制造商和电池制造商面临不断攀升的成本，欧洲各地创纪录的电价正在破坏欧洲大陆建立可靠的低碳供应链和实现脱碳目标的努力。

挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究结果显示，除非电力价格迅速恢复正常水平，否则35吉瓦的太阳能光伏生产能力和超过2000吉瓦时的电池生产能力可能会被封存。 

由于经营成本上升，这些生产过程的能源密集型性质导致一些运营商临时关闭或放弃生产设施。 除非价格很快好转，否则欧洲通过提高可再生能源发电装机容量和电动汽车(EV)使用率来减少对进口化石燃料依赖的计划可能会破产。 

Rystad能源服务研究主管奥登· 马丁森说，高电价不仅对欧洲的脱碳努力构成重大威胁，还可能导致对海外制造业的依赖增加，这是欧盟各国政府都急于避免的。如果欧洲大陆要坚持包括欧盟REPowerEU能源计划在内的目标，建立一个可靠的国内低碳供应链是至关重要的，但就目前情况来看，这是非常危险的。

最近几周，由于核电站和水电站的意外停运、酷暑天气对冷却设备的需求飙升以及天然气供应减少，欧洲的电价已升至前所未有的水平。

在欧洲太阳能和电池制造能力领先的德国，每日平均现货电价已超过每兆瓦时595美元，而法国的现货电价已超过每兆瓦时695美元。在高峰时段，欧洲的电价已飙升至每兆瓦时1490美元，这对包括工业部门在内的消费者来说是不可持续的水平。尽管自8月份的创纪录高点以来，电价已大幅回落，但电价仍维持在每兆瓦时300至400美元区间，比能源危机前的正常水平高出许多倍。 

Rystad补充说，欧洲人近几年来受益于可靠和负担得起的电力。低碳制造商也将他们的产能建设建立在每兆瓦时50美元左右的稳定电价上。由于亚洲等其他地区的制造商享受着较低的电力投入费用，相比之下，欧洲制造商正变得越来越没有竞争力。  

尽管欧洲的太阳能生产能力在全球范围内相对较弱，仅占总可再生能源产能的2%，但任何项目的关闭或放弃都将产生严重的长期负面影响。欧盟(EU)的目标是到2025年前达到20吉瓦的产能，尽管目前计划有35吉瓦的项目，但许多项目尚未获得资金，如果高电价持续下去，这些项目将面临失败的风险。

在挪威，电力成本上涨了6倍，导致能源密集型的太阳能电池板制造业考虑在今年剩余时间内关闭。 鉴于欧洲天然气短缺预计将持续数年，且电价将持续高企，为太阳能制造工厂吸引融资和投资可能具有挑战性。 

电池  

电池制造在电动汽车和电池存储供应链中至关重要，它的能源密集型甚至超过太阳能制造业，而欧洲是全球主要参与者。欧盟目前拥有约550吉瓦时的产能，占全球运营产能的27%。已宣布的正在开发中的项目将显著提高总产能，总产能将提高到2.7太瓦时，使欧盟成为全球领导者。然而，现在这些项目都面临风险，汽车制造和电池存储部门可能难以获得欧洲制造的电池。

由于能源成本上升和需要额外融资，英伦伏特在英国布莱思的标志性千兆电池工厂(该工厂将为欧洲大陆的制造能力增加30兆瓦时)已被推迟至2025年年中。由于亚洲制造商享受着低得多的电价，欧洲制造商迅速扩大生产规模的计划可能会受到挑战。根据电力价格持续上涨的时间，欧洲电动汽车的采用率可能会放缓。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

European Renewable Energy Supply Chain Under Threat

Record-breaking electricity prices across Europe are damaging the continent’s attempts to build a reliable low-carbon supply chain and reach its decarbonization targets, as solar and battery manufacturers face mounting costs.

Rystad Energy research shows that 35 GW of solar PV manufacturing and more than 2,000 GWh of battery cell manufacturing capacity could be mothballed unless power prices quickly return to normal levels.

The energy-intensive nature of these manufacturing processes is leading some operators to temporarily close or abandon production facilities as the cost of doing business escalates. Unless prices turn around soon, Europe’s plans to cut dependence on imported fossil fuels by boosting installed renewable generation capacity and electric vehicle (EV) usage could be derailed.

“High power prices not only pose a significant threat to European decarbonization efforts but could also result in increased reliance on overseas manufacturing, something governments are eager to avoid. Building a reliable domestic low-carbon supply chain is essential if the continent is going to stick to its goals, including the REPowerEU plan, but as things stand, that is in serious jeopardy,” Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy’s head of energy service research, said.

European electricity prices have risen to unprecedented levels in recent weeks due to unplanned nuclear and hydropower plant outages, soaring demand for cooling during an oppressive summer heatwave, and reduced gas deliveries.

Daily average spot power prices in Germany – Europe’s leader in solar and battery cell manufacturing capacity – have surpassed $595 per MWh, while rates in France have topped $695 per MWh. During peak hours, European power prices have spiked to $1,490 per MWh, unsustainable levels for consumers, including the industrial sector. Although prices have retreated significantly since these record highs in August, rates remain in the $300 to $400 range, many multiples above pre-energy crisis norms.

Rystad added that Europeans have benefited from reliable and affordable electricity in recent years. Low-carbon manufacturers have also predicated their build-up of production capacity on stable power prices of around $50 per MWh. With manufacturers in other regions, such as Asia, enjoying lower electricity input tariffs, European producers are becoming increasingly uncompetitive by comparison.

Although Europe’s solar manufacturing capacity is relatively modest on a global scale – making up only 2% of total capacity – any shutdowns or abandonment of projects would have significant long-term negative consequences. The European Union (EU) has targeted 20 GW of production capacity by 2025, and although 35 GW of projects is currently planned, many have not secured funding, increasing the risk that these projects will fall through if high power prices continue.

In Norway, electricity costs have risen six-fold, leading the energy-intensive solar panel manufacturing industry to consider shutting down for the remainder of 2022. With Europe expected to be short on gas for several years and high electricity prices to continue as a result, attracting financing and investment for solar manufacturing plants could prove challenging.

Battery cells

Battery cell manufacturing – crucial in the EV and battery storage supply chain – is even more energy intensive than solar manufacturing, and Europe is a major global player. The EU currently boasts about 550 GWh of capacity, representing 27% of global operational capacity. Announced projects under development are set to boost that total significantly, increasing capacity to 2.7 terawatt-hours, positioning the EU as a global leader. However, those are now at risk, and the car manufacturing and battery storage sectors could struggle to source European-made batteries as a result.

Britishvolt’s signature giga-sized battery factory in Blyth in the UK – which would add 30 GWh to the continent’s manufacturing capabilities – has already been delayed to mid-2025 due to rising energy costs and the need for additional fundraising. With Asian manufacturers enjoying much lower power prices, European manufacturers’ plans to rapidly scale production could be challenged. Depending on how long elevated power prices continue, a slowdown in EV adoption in Europe could follow.