据油价网2022年10月10日报道，《天然气情报》（NGL）援引出席墨西哥湾沿岸能源论坛的专家的话报道称，尽管美国液化天然气（LNG）有望实现长期增长，但由于基础设施和扩张计划遭遇限制，明年美国国内天然气需求增长可能会放缓。
美国液化天然气中心执行董事Charlie Riedl告诉NGI，尽管受到地缘政治冲突的影响，美国LNG的发展趋势有望在本十年内加速，但基础设施和管道的扩建将是“关键任务”，重点是将二叠盆地和海恩斯维尔盆地与LNG出口终端连接起来。
专家指出，虽然新项目正在进行中，但投产时间将出现滞后。
美国自由港LNG出口设施在6月发生火灾后，至少要关闭到11月初。当它重新启动时，每天将向市场返回大约20亿立方英尺LNG。然而，除此之外，专家告诉NGI，两年内美国不会有其它新的LNG出口能力扩张计划，埃克森美孚公司与卡塔尔能源公司合作的Golden Pass LNG计划要到2024年才能启动。
目前，由于LNG的扩张赶上长期前景，市场正准备迎来轻微的喘息。
Easy Daley Analytics公司的Rob Wilson在为期三天的论坛间隙对NGI表示，墨西哥湾沿岸的LNG出口能力将在2025年之前逐步增加，但由于新项目落后于市场动态，短期扩张增长放缓可能会影响天然气生产商。
Wilson对NGI表示，“我认为库存将在明年3月和4月增加，我们将看到库存水平显著高于历史平均水平”。
Wilson预测，到2023年，尽管来自亚洲和欧洲的需求将继续保持高水平，但美国天然气生产商将看到更低的价格，因为市场将等待需求赶上供应。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Experts: U.S. LNG Growth Could Slow Next Year
While American LNG is poised for long-term growth, next year could see a slowing of domestic natural gas demand due as infrastructure and expansion plans experience limitations, Natural Gas Intelligence reports, citing experts on the sidelines of a Gulf Coast energy forum.
Central for Liquefied Natural Gas (CLNG) executive director Charlie Riedl told NGI that while LNG dynamics are expected to accelerate this decade, buoyed by the war, facility and pipeline expansion will be “mission critical”, with a focus on connecting the Permian Basin and the Haynesville Basin to LNG export terminals.
Experts note that while new projects are underway, the timing will see a lag.
The Freeport LNG export facility continues to be out until at least early November after a fire in June. When it does restart, it would return some 2 billion cubic feet per day to the market. Aside from that, however, experts told NGI that no other expansions of export capability are on the books for two years, with Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG–in cooperation with QatarEnergy–not slated for initial startup until 2024.
Right now, the market is gearing up for a slight pause as LNG expansion catches up with the longer-term prospects here.
Speaking on the sidelines of the three-day forum, Easy Daley Analytics’ Rob Wilson told NGI that Gulf Coast LNG export capacity is set to increase gradually through 2025, but that slower near-term expansion growth could impact natural gas producers as new projects lag behind market dynamics.
“I think it will be March and April, when storage ramps up, and we see levels reach significantly above historical averages,” Wilson told NGI.
For 2023, Wilson predicts that while demand from Asia and Europe will continue to be high, U.S. natural gas producers will see lower prices as the market waits for demand to catch up with supply.
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