JODI：8月份全球石油总需求几乎恢复到疫情前水平

来自JODI汇编的统计数据显示，8月份全球石油需求出现反弹，总需求几乎恢复到疫情前的水平  

8月份全球石油需求日增200万桶，而此前一个月每天罕见地减少110万桶

全球经济放缓的风险和欧佩克+最近的减产决定可能会减缓未来全球石油需求增长  

据油价网10月17日报道，周一，来自总部设在利雅得的联合石油数据库(JODI)汇编的统计数据显示，在经历了7月份的反季节性下降后，全球石油需求在8月份平均每天反弹200万桶，达到疫情暴发前99%的水平。  

总部位于利雅得的国际能源论坛(IEF)援引最新JODI数据说，8月份全球石油需求增长是受美国、日本、沙特阿拉伯和印度尼西亚消费增加的推动。

值得注意的是，8月份全球原油日产量也增加了50万桶，其中沙特阿拉伯原油日产量超过1100万桶——这是沙特阿拉伯王国第三次报告原油日产量超过1100万桶。

数据显示，美国8月份原油日产量增加29万桶，比去年同期增加81.3万桶。8月份美国原油日需求增加146万桶，美国原油收市库存减少2270万桶，至JODI开始记录以来的第二低水平。  

在8月份全球石油需求反弹之前，7月份全球的石油日需求量估计下降了110万桶，这种情况在每年的这个时候是不寻常的。 

8月份的需求可能已经反弹，但石油市场和石油分析师表示，持续的经济放缓和即将到来的经济衰退可能会在短期内限制需求增长。

在欧佩克+联盟10月初宣布自2020年以来最大的减产目标水平后，供应也将比之前预期的更受限制。尽管欧佩克+总体上每天削减200万桶，但目前欧佩克+原油日产量的实际削减量只有这个数字的一半，约为100万桶—110万桶。这是因为许多成员国几个月来都没能按配额生产原油。  

国际能源署(IEA)上周警告称，欧佩克+从11月份起削减原油供应的决定增加了全球能源安全风险，并可能导致油价上涨，这可能成为全球经济衰退的引爆点。IEA为此下调了对今明两年全球石油需求增长预期，并表示：“仍然相对强劲的总体数据掩盖了正在发生的急剧放缓，目前预计今年第四季度全球石油日需求将同比减少34万桶。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Rebounded By 2 Million Bpd In August

·     Data from JODI shows that global oil demand rebounded in August, with total demand nearly back at pre-Covid levels.

·     The 2 million August increase in global oil demand followed an unusual 1.1 million bpd drop the month before.

·     The risk of a global economic slowdown and the recent decision by OPEC+ to cut production may slow demand growth going forward.

After a counter-seasonal drop in July, global oil demand rebounded in August by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) to reach 99 percent of pre-Covid levels, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday.

Oil demand growth in August was driven by higher consumption in the United States, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF) said, citing the latest JODI data.

Of note in August was also a 500,000 bpd increase in global crude oil output, with Saudi Arabia’s production rising above 11 million bpd - only the third time the Kingdom has reported output of over 11 million bpd, according to the JODI database which compiles self-reported figures from countries.

In the United States, crude oil production rose by 290,000 bpd in August and is up by 813,000 bpd from year-ago levels, the data showed. Product demand rose by 1.46 million bpd in August, and U.S. crude oil closing stocks dropped by 22.7 million barrels to their second-lowest level recorded in JODI.

The August rebound in global demand follows an estimated 1.1 million bpd drop in July, which was an unusual slump for this time of the year.

Demand for August may have rebounded, but the oil market and oil analysts say that the ongoing economic slowdown and looming recessions could limit demand growth in the near term.

Supply will also be constrained more than previously expected after the OPEC+ group announced early this month the biggest cut to its target production level since 2020. Despite the headline cut of 2 million bpd, the actual reduction from current OPEC+ oil production would be half that figure, at around 1 million bpd-1.1 million bpd. That’s because many producers haven’t been able to produce to their quotas for months.

The alliance’s decision to cut oil supply as of November increases energy security risks worldwide and could lead to higher oil prices that could be the tipping point for a global recession, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last week. The agency cut its demand growth estimates for this year and next and said that “The still relatively robust headline figure masks a sharp slowdown underway, with demand now forecast to contract by 340 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, despite increased gas-to-oil switching in power generation and industry.”