据美国钻井网站2022年10月19日报道，根据伍德麦肯兹的一项最新分析，拉丁美洲的海上风力发电项目将大幅增加，到2050年前海上风电装机容量将达到34吉瓦。
从2032年起，拉丁美洲地区第一批风力发电项目预计上线时，海上风力发电活动将15.4%的年复合增长率。带头的将是巴西和哥伦比亚。
伍德麦肯兹电力和可再生能源研究分析师卡里斯·普拉多表示：“我们已经看到了支持海上风电发展的重大监管行动，巴西和哥伦比亚为未来的海上风电活动提供了官方路线图和指导方针。”“两国都有越来越多的已规划项目，截至今年第三季度，今年拉丁美洲已宣布的管道增长已占全球新项目宣布的34%。”
海上风力发电能力的价值在于支持绿色氢气项目，这些绿色氢气项目有望在国内能源使用和出口方面发挥重要作用。伍德麦肯兹预测，到2050年，巴西将占据全球绿色氢气供应总量的近6%，2030年后市场规模将进一步扩大。然而，巴西全国只有20%的绿色氢气设施将是并网发电。
普拉多说：“这些海上风力发电项目大部分将是离网型项目，其中一部分将由海上风能和其他可再生能源支持。”“这将对巴西未来的经济和作为全球能源出口国的长期地位发挥关键作用。然而，在监管方面仍有许多工作要做，要实现这一目标仍面临许多挑战。”
开发商目前面临的挑战包括有限的能源需求、输电基础设施的限制、来自其他来源的竞争、项目的可融资性以及供应链问题。
“尽管存在这些挑战，但该行业仍有起飞的机会。如果监管加强和基础设施投资加快，再加上新兴的绿色氢气产业，未来海上风电产能可能超过拉丁美洲地区的预期。”普拉多说。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Latin America Offshore Wind Capacity To Reach 34 GW By 2050
Latin America will see a sharp increase in offshore wind projects, with capacity reaching 34 GW by 2050, according to a new analysis from Wood Mackenzie.
Offshore wind activity will correspond to a 15.4 percent compound annual growth rate starting from 2032 when the first projects are expected to come online in the region. Leading the way will be Brazil and Colombia.
“We have seen significant regulatory movement in support of offshore wind developments, with Brazil and Colombia providing official roadmaps and guidelines for future activity,” said Kárys Prado, Research Analyst for Power and Renewables at Wood Mackenzie. “Both countries have an increasing number of planned projects, and this year’s announced pipeline growth in Latin America already represents a 34 percent share of global new project announcements, as of the third quarter of 2022.”
The value of offshore wind capacity will be to support green hydrogen projects that look to play an important role in domestic energy use and exports. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that Brazil will capture close to 6 percent of the world’s total green hydrogen supply through 2050, with the market gaining scale after 2030. However, only 20 percent of the green hydrogen installations in the country will be grid-connected.
“The majority of these projects will be off-grid and part of it will be supported by offshore wind, alongside other renewables,” said Prado. “This will play a key role in the country’s future economy and long-term position as a global energy exporter. However, there is still much work to be done on the regulatory front and many challenges remain to make this a reality.”
Current challenges facing developers include limited energy demand, transmission infrastructure constraints, competition from other sources, project bankability, and supply chain issues.
“Despite all these challenges, there is an opportunity for the industry to take off. If regulation and infrastructure investments accelerate, combined with the fledgling green hydrogen industry, future offshore wind capacity could exceed expectations in the region,” concluded Prado.
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